District by district - Illinois

ILLINOIS-14

Democrat down by one

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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Republicans have targeted this district since Foster won it in a special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) resigned.

Hultgren, a state senator, could be hurt by low name recognition. The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27 percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren.

Hultgren won a competitive Republican primary, beating Ethan Hastert, the son of the former Speaker, by 10 points. That primary, which garnered a lot of media attention, was one of the earliest in the cycle, taking place in February. The long time frame between the primary and election could account for Hultgren’s low voter recognition.

Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and older voters.

President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.

Foster has brought in some executive-branch help, however, as first lady Michelle Obama has campaigned for him.

The NRCC has spent around $231,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $252,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.



ILLINOIS-17

Republican challenger ahead by seven points

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.

The NRCC has spent about $341,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $599,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 417 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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