District by district - Arizona

ARIZONA-05

Independents breaking for Democratic incumbent

ADVERTISEMENT
Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) trails his Republican challenger, David Schweikert, by three points, 42 percent to 45, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s a tough position for Mitchell, who beat Schweikert with 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

Mitchell’s saving grace may be independent voters. He’s leading among them by 16 points, and independents make up the largest bloc of undecided voters, which is a good sign for the incumbent in this Republican-leaning district.

Also, more independents approve of President Obama’s job performance (53 percent) than disapprove (46 percent). And since 72 percent of independents say Obama is an important factor in their vote, that could result in more support for Mitchell.

Schweikert leads among male voters, while Mitchell leads with females. Older voters tend to favor Schweikert, who’s been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Mitchell was one of then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel’s (D-Ill.) top recruits in 2006, when he defeated three-term GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

There’s been heavy party spending in this district. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent about $744,000 in independent expenditures, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent around $571,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 408 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
Illinois
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

District by
district results

Arkansas
Illinois
West Virginia
Hawaii
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania
Michigan

Tennessee
Washington

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia