Election tides

This November’s midterm election will be the third wave election in a row.

Unlike in 2006 and 2008, this year’s wave will be red, not blue. And polling by The Hill this fall suggests Republicans are likely to win control of the House.

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The class of 2006, which catapulted then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to become the first female Speaker, is in trouble. The Hill’s polling of 10 Democratic incumbents in their second terms reveals that Republicans are winning in six races and down in just two, and that the remaining two contests are deadlocked.

With undecided voters more likely to vote for the GOP, the news is not good for the Democratic Party.

In many ways, 2006 and 2010 are similar, just in reverse.

Four years ago, a slew of Republicans who were previously considered safe suddenly became endangered, including Reps. Pete King (N.Y.), Jim Ryun (Kan.), Sue Kelly (N.Y.) and Jim Leach (Iowa).

King survived, but Ryun, Kelly and Leach lost.

This year, Democrats who were cruising to reelection in the spring are now sweating their races out.

Reps. Barney Frank (Mass.), Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.), Carolyn McCarthy (N.Y.) and Niki Tsongas (Mass.) are all in competitive races, which was unthinkable a few months ago.

Meanwhile, Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.), who was considered relatively safe this summer, is now seven points behind his Republican challenger, according to The Hill’s new polling. President Obama won Hare’s district by 15 percentage points two years ago, but now 52 percent of those polled disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who stunned Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-N.H.) in 2006, is behind by five points to Republican Frank Guinta. Shea-Porter, who is the first congresswoman in New Hampshire, has defied the odds before, though she is now a clear underdog in her bid for a third term.

One of the two Democrats who is winning in The Hill’s new poll is Rep. Michael Arcuri (N.Y.), who voted against healthcare reform. Arcuri is leading by an eye-popping 10 points over Richard Hanna, who lost to Arcuri two years ago.

The other Democrat is Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.), who is behind in his race by five points in a district Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by 24 points in the 2008 presidential election race.

There’s less than two weeks to go before Election Day. Democrats look like they need some type of game-changer over the next 13 days to save their majority.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
Illinois
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

District by
district results

Arkansas
Illinois
West Virginia
Hawaii
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania
Michigan

Tennessee
Washington

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia