District by district - South Carolina

SOUTH CAROLINA-05

House Budget chairman down by 10 points

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Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) trails Republican Mick Mulvaney by 10 points, 39 percent to 49 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Mulvaney is winning independents by 23 points and leads among male, female, middle-aged and older voters. The only group Spratt leads is younger voters, but he’s winning that unpredictable voting group by a mere two points.

Spratt’s favorability rating is 41 percent, with 47 percent rating him unfavorably. And 43 percent said Spratt’s 14 terms in Congress were a reason to vote against him.

Spratt is the chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made him her point man on budget issues. Those ties have come back to haunt him. The NRCC has aired several adds highlighting his ties to the party leadership, including one where he’s called a “rubber stamp” for Pelosi and another where he’s shown dancing alongside the Speaker.

When Pelosi was in South Carolina in September, she hosted a fundraiser for Spratt in Charleston, which is outside of his district.

He voted for cap-and-trade legislation, the stimulus and healthcare reform — votes the GOP is reminding the electorate of in its campaign ads.

Spratt has been targeted by the GOP before, to no avail. In 2006, Republicans sent then-Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for his opponent, but Spratt easily won that race and, in 2008, prevailed with a comfortable 62 percent. Yet his district has turned more and more Republican. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won it in 2008, and President Obama is unpopular here, with 55 percent of voters rating him unfavorably.

Mulvaney has the backing of the Tea Party and has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has campaigned for him.

The DCCC has spent about $872,000, while the NRCC has spent about $1 million.

The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-20 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 499 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

- Looming anti-Obama midterm vote may not carry through to 2012
- Likely voters throw a wrench into GOP budget plans
- This campaign is the nastiest, voters say
- Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
- Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
- GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Dems in deep danger

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
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- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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