District by district - Iowa

IOWA-03

Rep. Boswell with big lead

Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) has a big lead over Republican Brad Zaun, 49 percent to 37, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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Boswell is winning independents by 17 points, getting 10 percent of the Republican vote, and has double-digit leads among female, middle-aged and older voters.

His favorability rating is high, at 51 percent, while Zaun’s unfavorable rating is at 47 percent.

Zaun has been hit hard in this campaign. Democrats sent around a mailer highlighting his past financial troubles, claiming he tried to avoid paying his federal taxes and home mortgage. Zaun acknowledges money problems but said he has dug himself out of a financial hole. Democrats also noted Zaun originally opposed tax breaks for biofuels, which can be a deadly issue in this soybean state. But it was a popular position with the Tea Party grass roots, which helped him win the GOP nomination. He now supports the tax break.

Boswell is also benefiting from strong support from women, who favor him by 20 points. A story in the Des Moines Register about a 2001 police report that said Zaun allegedly harassed a former girlfriend could be playing a role in those numbers.

Boswell, a Blue Dog Democrat, is always a GOP target and has never topped 56 percent in this Democratic-leaning district. He voted for cap-and-trade legislation, the stimulus and healthcare reform. The Chamber is spending against him, but the NRA has endorsed him. Vice Joe President Biden has been out to campaign for him.

The seven-term Democrat sits on the Agriculture Committee and helped write the 2008 Farm Bill. He will likely have a role in the 2012 version of the legislation if he’s still a lawmaker. And 52 percent of voters said his time in Washington is a reason to vote for him.

Democrats have invested heavily here: The DCCC has spent about $560,000, while the NRCC hasn’t spent anything.

The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

- Looming anti-Obama midterm vote may not carry through to 2012
- Likely voters throw a wrench into GOP budget plans
- This campaign is the nastiest, voters say
- Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
- Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
- GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Dems in deep danger

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
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- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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