District by district - Florida

FLORIDA-02

Rep. Boyd trails by double digits

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) is down a dozen points in his race against Republican Steve Southerland, 38 percent to 50, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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Southerland leads among males, females and middle-aged and older voters. He’s also winning 12 percent of Democrats.

Boyd, meanwhile, has high unfavorable ratings. The poll found 54 percent of voters gave him unfavorable marks to the 34 percent who rated him favorably.

President Obama also gets negative marks from voters, with 61 percent disapproving of the job he’s doing. That could come back to hurt Boyd, as 68 percent said the president is an important factor in their decision.

Plus, Republicans are investing big to win this district. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent almost $668,000, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent about $167,000. Outside groups have also spent heavily in this district.

Boyd is a seven-term lawmaker and member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition. He’s been endorsed by the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which doesn’t seem to be helping him in this GOP-leaning district.

Though he is a longtime GOP target, Boyd won reelection with a comfortable 62 percent last cycle and hasn’t faced a close contest until this year.

Southerland has benefited from Tea Party ties. He’s criticized Boyd for voting for the healthcare bill and tried to tie him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — a tactic that could be working, as 52 percent of voters said Boyd’s time in Washington was a reason to vote against him. Southerland has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and House GOP leader John Boehner (Ohio) campaigned for him in Florida.

The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 399 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

- Looming anti-Obama midterm vote may not carry through to 2012
- Likely voters throw a wrench into GOP budget plans
- This campaign is the nastiest, voters say
- Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
- Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
- GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Dems in deep danger

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
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- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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