In perhaps this cycle's truest Tea Party-versus-establishment fight, Sen. Thad CochranWilliam (Thad) Thad CochranThe Hill's Morning Report — Trump turns the page back to Mueller probe Trump praises Thad Cochran: 'A real senator with incredible values' The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump, Democrats deal with Mueller fallout MORE (R-Miss.) and his primary challenger, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, revealed this weekend why the outcome of the Mississippi Senate Republican primary is still anybody's guess.

McDaniel’s undisciplined campaign struggled to tamp down growing controversy surrounding an apparent supporter who was arrested Friday night for allegedly taping Cochran’s infirm wife, Rose, in her nursing home room and then posting the clip on the Web in an apparent hit against Cochran.

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The controversy has overshadowed all other story lines in the race in its final days and left McDaniel explaining and re-explaining his version of events through the weekend and into the week, at a time when his attention would likely be better spent elsewhere.

But Cochran spent the third weekend out from the primary off the campaign trail, canceling all of his Saturday events and leaving the state on Sunday. It was an odd choice for an incumbent charged of being out-of-touch with his state, and one who’s faced questions about where he calls his home.

A poll from a pro-McDaniel group out Monday showed him up 4 points over Cochran.

But with two weeks left, and McDaniel still back on his heels, the outcome is far from certain.

SENATE SHOWDOWN

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Put Alaskans First, a super-PAC supporting Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichFormer GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lobbying world Dem governors on 2020: Opposing Trump not enough MORE (D-Alaska), is out with an ad featuring a hunter accusing Alaska Republican Dan Sullivan of wanting to give the federal government more control over Alaska’s wilderness. 

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): This one’s only beginning, folks. Allies of the Senate minority leader have already purchased $5.2 million in ad time after tonight’s primary as the messy contest against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes officially begins.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Crossroads GPS’s new ad in North Carolina attacks Sen. Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganTillis trails Democratic challenger by 7 points in North Carolina poll North Carolina businessman will challenge Tillis in GOP primary Embattled senators fill coffers ahead of 2020 MORE (D) on ObamaCare.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

AL-6 (OPEN): The Club for Growth launched an ad hammering Will Brooke, a businessman running in a crowded GOP primary to replace Rep. Spencer BachusSpencer Thomas BachusBiz groups take victory lap on Ex-Im Bank On The Money: White House files notice of China tariff hikes | Dems cite NYT report in push for Trump tax returns | Trump hits Iran with new sanctions | Trump praises GM for selling shuttered Ohio factory | Ex-Im Bank back at full strength Export-Import Bank back to full strength after Senate confirmations MORE (R), for donations he’s made to Democrats in the past. "That's liberal, that's Will Brooke," the ad says. The Club has endorsed orthopedic surgeon Dr. Chad Mathis in the race.

MI-11 (BENTIVOLIO): Rep. Kerry BentivolioKerry BentivolioIndiana Republican: Leaders duped me Reindeer farmer saves 'cromnibus' with yes vote High drama as .1T spending package advances by one vote MORE’s (R-Mich.) campaign manager has resigned, the latest troubling sign for his primary prospects.

CA-31 (OPEN): A mysterious group calling itself Cal Voters for Honest Government is helping to boost former Rep. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) with mail ads and phone calls but isn't disclosing how much it's spending, a violation of campaign finance law.

VA-8 (OPEN): Mark Levine, who’s running in the crowded Democratic primary to replace Rep. James Moran (D-Va.), said he’s planning to “spend a minimum of several hundred thousand dollars over the next three weeks on TV alone," according to The Washington Post.

WV-3 (RAHALL): A new survey from Rep. Nick RahallNick Joe RahallWe shouldn't allow politics to impede disaster relief Break the cycle of partisanship with infant, child health care programs Clinton mulls role in 2018 midterms MORE’s (D-W.Va.) campaign shows him holding a 13-point lead over Republican opponent, state Sen. Evan Jenkins, and taking more than 50 percent of the vote. The poll, obtained by The Hill from a source close to the campaign, was conducted by Democratic polling firm Anzalone Liszt and gives Rahall 52 percent support among likely voters, to Jenkins’s 39 percent support.

NRCC: National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) and the NRCC are launching the "Drive to 245," with the goal of netting a dozen House seats and growing the GOP's majority to one of the largest in the last century.

NEW DEMS: The centrist New Democrat Coalition is throwing its weight behind five new House candidates, endorsing Dr. Manan Trivedi (D) in his race for retiring Rep. Jim GerlachJames (Jim) Gerlach2018 midterms: The blue wave or a red dawn? Pa. GOP 'disappointed' by rep retiring after filing deadline Pennsylvania Republican Costello won't seek reelection MORE's (R-Pa.) seat, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D), who's in a crowded primary to succeed Rep. Gary Miller (R-Calif.), Emily Cain, who's running to succeed Rep. Michael Michaud (D-Maine), former Virginia Lt. Gov. Don Beyer (D), who's running for retiring Rep. Jim MoranJames (Jim) Patrick MoranStar-studded cast to perform play based on Mueller report DC theatre to host 11-hour reading of the Mueller report Bottom line MORE's (D-Va.) seat, and Kathleen Kane's (D) bid to succeed retiring Rep. Carolyn McCarthyCarolyn McCarthyWhy Congress needs an openly atheist member, now Lobbying World Lobbying world MORE (D-N.Y.)

2016 WATCH

PENCE PUSHES HEALTHCARE REFORM: Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) called on his fellow conservatives to offer healthcare solutions in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute, though his own Medicaid plan has been criticized by some on the right.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I have an angel out there," Baca said. "I don't know who it is."

—Former Rep. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) of the secretive group backing his bid