In just a few hours, we’ll know whether the Tea Party has made Thad CochranWilliam (Thad) Thad CochranEspy wins Mississippi Senate Democratic primary Bottom Line Mike Espy announces Mississippi Senate bid MORE its latest victim.

The Mississippi senator’s supporters are enthused by higher turnout than was seen in the primary three weeks ago and think he might have some late momentum. But given the trajectory of the race and the heavy outside spending, a Cochran win at this point would be the bigger surprise of the night. 

If challenger Chris McDaniel does win, Republicans could have quite the conundrum on their hands. On Tuesday many state politicians said the wounds would heal — on “The Daily Rundown” GOP Chairman Joe Nosef promised the party would come together and former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) also said “of course” he would support McDaniel if he is the nominee. 

But Democrats were gleeful already about the prospect of a McDaniel win, sending around a memo reminding reporters that fellow Republicans called McDaniel “ 'Dangerous,' 'Extreme,' Someone Who Associates With “White Nationalists & Segregationists' ” and even NRSC leadership had called his campaign “ 'Despicable,' 'Extreme' and 'Revolting.' ”

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National Republicans took a real risk in the fervor with which they railed against McDaniel, and whether they admit it or not, they’re praying their words don’t come back to bite them. 

Even in other races where incumbents or front-runners were upset and Democrats subsequently won in November — like the Indiana contest in 2012 or Nevada, Delaware and Colorado in 2010 — the vitriol between the two candidates was nothing like this race. And that’s exactly why Senate Democrats are feeling optimistic about former Rep. Travis Childers (D). A win in the Deep South is still a long haul, but after tonight Democrats could finally have the “Todd Akin” of the cycle they’ve been looking for to drag down other candidates. 

For more on tonight's primaries, where polls close in Mississippi, Maryland and Oklahoma at 8 p.m. and in Colorado, New York and Oklahoma at 9 p.m., read our primer on Mississippi and five questions that will be answered tonight in other races

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

AR-SEN (PRYOR): American Crossroads slammed Sen. Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorCoronavirus poses risks for Trump in 2020 Tom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 MORE (D-Ark.) in a new ad Tuesday, accusing him of being “Obama’s rubber stamp” and voting with the president 90 percent of the time. The ad, which also identifies Pryor as the “deciding vote for Obamacare,” will run statewide backed by a $440,000 buy.

IA-SEN (OPEN): A coalition of environmental groups is targeting Republican candidate Joni Ernst (R) in a new ad. The spot accuses Ernst of having ties with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and the billionaire Koch brothers and of making promises to them that are “too extreme for Iowa.” It is part of a $1 million push in favor of Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce Lowell Braley2020 caucuses pose biggest challenge yet for Iowa's top pollster OPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward MORE (D-Iowa).

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Kentucky might not have seen the last of Sen. Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOn The Money: Pelosi, Mnuchin talk but make no progress on ending stalemate | Trump grabs 'third rail' of politics with payroll tax pause | Trump uses racist tropes to pitch fair housing repeal to 'suburban housewife' Pelosi, Mnuchin talk but make no progress on ending stalemate Democrats say White House isn't budging in coronavirus relief stalemate MORE’s (R-Ky.) failed primary challenger, businessman Matt Bevin. He’s remained active in Kentucky politics since losing his long-shot bid against the senator in May, and his spokeswoman, Sarah Durand, did not shut the door on the option of him running again for office in the state when asked by Kentucky news outlet WFPL.

MN-SEN (FRANKEN): Sen. Al FrankenAlan (Al) Stuart FrankenTina Smith wins Democratic Senate primary in Minnesota Poll: Tina Smith's lead over probable GOP challenger within margin of error in Minnesota Senate race CNN publishes first Al Franken op-ed since resignation MORE (D-Minn.) debuted an ad Tuesday touting his work to reform shady practices in Wall Street banks and credit rating agencies. “Wall Street wasn’t happy about that, but I don’t work for them. I work for you,” Franken says in the ad, which will run statewide. 

MT-SEN (WALSH): Sen. John Walsh’s (D-Mont.) campaign is out with an ad firing back at Rep. Steve Daines’s (R-Mont.) latest spot, which said Walsh “looked the other way” on female guardsmen who were mistreated under his watch. In Walsh’s ad, a woman who served with Walsh calls the spot “nothing more than a lie.” Walsh also wrote a letter to Daines accusing him of “swiftboat attacks” and asking him to meet face-to-face to discuss the ads — and included a letter from the Montana delegation signed by Daines praising Walsh’s work.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Sen. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: GoDaddy CEO Aman Bhutani says DC policymakers need to do more to support ventures and 'solo-preneurs'; Federal unemployment benefits expire as coronavirus deal-making deadlocks Overnight Defense: Pompeo pressed on move to pull troops from Germany | Panel abruptly scraps confirmation hearing | Trump meets family of slain soldier Shaheen, Chabot call for action on new round of PPP loans MORE (D-N.H.) released two ads Tuesday highlighting the senator’s work for mortgage reform in the state. The ads feature the testimonial of a Republican homeowner who claims Shaheen is the reason she didn’t lose her home of 14 years. 

Shaheen’s likely Republican opponent, Scott Brown, will pick up the endorsement of former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney next week, according to a campaign email sent out to supporters Tuesday morning. Romney will join Brown at a campaign event next Wednesday.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): The Susan B. Anthony List is launching a new ad campaign accusing Sen. Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic Unity Taskforce unveils party platform recommendations Democrats awash with cash in battle for Senate The Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's job approval erodes among groups that powered his 2016 victory MORE (D-N.C.) of holding a "fringe position" on late-term abortion. The anti-abortion group announced Tuesday that it will spend $100,000 on the ad, which profiles a couple, Ned and Rebecca Ryun, describing their daughter's premature birth at 24 weeks. 

OK-SEN (INHOFE): Expected to easily beat back his primary challengers this evening, Sen. James InhofeJames (Jim) Mountain InhofeLincoln Project expands GOP target list, winning Trump ire Trump's contempt for advice and consent Senate GOP divided over whether they'd fill Supreme Court vacancy  MORE (R-Okla.) released his first TV spot on Tuesday. The 30-second ad features the senator and aviation enthusiast in his plane, flying around the Sooner State, and emphasizes the 435 visits he’s made to towns since 2009. “It’s a little thing, just seats two, but most of the time it’s just me,” Inhofe says in the ad about his plane and his passion for flight. “I can hit more Oklahoma towns in a day, listen and help more people, than I could in a week if I was driving.“

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerWary GOP eyes Meadows shift from brick-thrower to dealmaker Bottom line Cheney battle raises questions about House GOP's future MORE (R-Ohio) is contributing another $1.5 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee, a signal he’s nowhere near calling it quits. BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerWary GOP eyes Meadows shift from brick-thrower to dealmaker Bottom line Cheney battle raises questions about House GOP's future MORE told his colleagues of the donation in a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday. The newly elected incoming majority leader, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), also ponied up $1.5 million, while three other top Republicans pledged $1 million each: conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris RodgersCathy McMorris RodgersHillicon Valley: Trump backs potential Microsoft, TikTok deal, sets September deadline | House Republicans request classified TikTok briefing | Facebook labels manipulated Pelosi video Top House Republicans request classified TikTok briefing More than 100 lawmakers urge IRS to resolve stimulus payment issues MORE (Wash.), Budget Committee chief Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanTrump slams 'rogue' Sasse after criticism of executive actions Wary GOP eyes Meadows shift from brick-thrower to dealmaker Budowsky: Why I back Kennedy, praise Markey MORE (Wis.) and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), chairman of the Financial Services Committee.

Meanwhile, the pro-Clinton super-PAC Priorities USA is making new contributions to outside groups for the midterms, Politico reports. President Obama’s 2012 chairman, Jim Mesina, the group’s co-chairman, is giving $250,000 to both the Senate Majority PAC and the House Majority PAC. 

IA-3 (OPEN): A third-party “liberty” candidate is running in retiring Rep. Tom Latham’s (R-Iowa) competitive open seat and could potentially siphon off votes from the Republican. 

MI-4 (OPEN): Retiring Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) endorsed state Sen. John Moolenaar (R) to succeed him. Camp called Moolenaar an “honest hard-working, proven conservative” who “really has a great track record of really solid decision making.” 

TN-3 (FLEISCHMANN): Rep. Chuck FleischmannCharles (Chuck) Joseph FleischmannDemocrats may bring DHS bill to House floor GOP-Trump fractures on masks open up Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy says public health threat of loneliness compounded by COVID-19; Trump says task force will 'evolve' MORE (R-Tenn.) released his first television ad Tuesday, a positive spot touting the congressman as an example of the American Dream. Fleischman faces an August primary rematch with Weston Wamp, the son of the district’s former Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.). 

 

2016 WATCH

CHRISTIE: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R-N.J.) administration appears to be at the center of an investigation into securities law violations relating to a road repair project in New Jersey, The New York Times reported Tuesday. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Manhattan district attorney are looking into whether Christie administration’s pressured the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to subsidize repairs to the Pulaski Skyway even though it wasn’t in the agency’s authority, the report said. 

CLINTON: Former President Clinton on Tuesday defended Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe Hill's Campaign Report: Biden, Harris make first public appearance as running mates Trump campaign spox rips GOP congressman over rejection of QAnon conspiracy Biden hits back after Trump's attacks on Harris MORE's recent comments on wealth, saying his wife is “not out of touch.” In a discussion with NBC's David Gregory as part of the Clinton Global Initiative, the former president backed up his wife's remarks about being “dead broke” when the couple left the White House. 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Did This Happen In The Mississippi Senate Primary, Scooby Doo, Or A John Grisham Book?” —A Buzzfeed quiz on the strange race that finally ends tonight