Election Day eve is here, and in 24 hours Republicans will begin to find out whether they’re having a good election cycle, or a great one.

Sens. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne Shaheen2020 forecast: A House switch, a slimmer Senate for GOP — and a bigger win for Trump Lewandowski decides against Senate bid Biden would consider Republican for VP 'but I can't think of one right now' MORE (D-N.H.) and Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganGOP braces for Democratic spending onslaught in battle for Senate Democrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Better Medicare Alliance - Dems shift strategy on impeachment vote MORE (D-N.C.) are the first two incumbents whose fates will be sealed with early poll closings. 

If both lose, Republicans will almost be guaranteed of gaining the six seats they need to take back the Senate, and if even one falls the GOP could be on the verge of a big night.

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Both are viewed as slight favorites, and Republicans still have a solid path to winning a Senate majority even if they fall short against both senators. But election night could drag on for weeks — the GOP might need a runoff win in Louisiana or Georgia to seal Senate control.

 

Polls begin to close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, and The Hill will be up late. Follow @jessicataylor, @cam_joseph and @ajjaffe for breaking results.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

GA-SEN (OPEN): Businessman David Perdue (R) and former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) rehashed their main campaign attacks in their final Senate debate Sunday night. 

Perdue said in a Monday campaign stop that he "closed down plants all the time” but said “it was never a direct relationship with things going on offshore” when asked about previous outsourcing comments.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) released a last-minute radio ad featuring President Obama aimed at boosting Democratic base turnout. 

CO-SEN (UDALL): Sen. Mark UdallMark Emery UdallDemocrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump Poll: Trump trails three Democrats by 10 points in Colorado The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and the new Israel-'squad' controversy MORE (D-Colo.) is facing further criticism over his campaign strategy to focus largely on reproductive rights, this time from a Democratic donor frustrated with his campaign that heckled him at a recent event.  

IA-SEN (OPEN): Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) said she was “very offended” by retiring Sen. Tom HarkinThomas (Tom) Richard HarkinTrump's trial a major test for McConnell, Schumer New Hampshire parochialism, not whiteness, bedevils Democrats Democrats must question possible political surveillance MORE’s (D-Iowa) comments on her looks.

“I don’t care if she’s as good looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers, but if she votes like Michele BachmannMichele Marie BachmannEvangelicals shouldn't be defending Trump in tiff over editorial Mellman: The 'lane theory' is the wrong lane to be in White House backs Stephen Miller amid white nationalist allegations MORE, she’s wrong for the state of Iowa,” Harkin said over the weekend.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsSenate fails to get deal to speed up fight over impeachment rules Juan Williams: Counting the votes to remove Trump Senate GOP hopes to move new NAFTA deal before impeachment trial MORE’s (R-Kan.) campaign is pulling an ad that featured Kansas State University football coach Bill Snyder after Snyder apologized for appearing in it apparently against the university’s wishes. 

Early voting suggests Kansas could be in for a recount: under the state’s strict voter identification laws, many voters are already being turned away from the polls or are facing other difficulties at their polling places. 

DEMS: White House press secretary Josh Earnest predicted Democrats will hold onto Senate control, as did Vice President Biden

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE 

CA-52 (PETERS): A second former staffer has accused former San Diego city councilman Carl DeMaio (R) of sexual harassment. 

NY-11 (GRIMM): Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) may have implicated himself in campaign finance violations with a comment he made during a recent debate. 

LA-6 (OPEN): Democrat Edwin Edwards said he disagreed with Sen. Mary LandrieuMary Loretta LandrieuA decade of making a difference: Senate Caucus on Foster Youth Congress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face Dems wrestle over how to vote on ‘Green New Deal’ MORE’s (D-La.) contention that African-Americans and women have had a tougher time in the South. 

DEMS: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put out a memo touting its historically large fundraising and advertising figures on the eve of an election day where they’re expected to lose seats. DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) said this morning he still sees 20 toss-up seats in play.

Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said Monday that Republicans have “successfully made this campaign a referendum on President Obama,” and blamed poor Democratic messaging on the president's policies for expected losses in the House.

Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) said it’s “not going to be a pretty Election Day.”

 

AD WATCH 

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) issued three new radio ads, featuring her brother, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and former Louisiana Sens. John Breaux and J. Bennett Johnston touting her work for the state. 

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Sen. Pat Roberts’s (R-Kan.) primary challenger, radiologist Milton Wolf, has cut a robocall for the Tea Party Patriots urging Kansans to vote Republican to “see Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama marks MLK Day by honoring King for his 'poetic brilliance' and 'moral clarity' Biden breaks away from 2020 pack in South Carolina National Archives says it altered Trump signs, other messages in Women's March photo MORE cry” on Election Night. 

 

POLL POSITION 

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Sen. Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump admin releases trove of documents on Ukrainian military aid The Hill's Morning Report - Trump trial begins with clashes, concessions What to watch for on Day 2 of Senate impeachment trial MORE (R) leads Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 50 percent to 42 percent in a poll from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, and 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in an NBC/Marist poll

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) leads Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) 44 percent to 36 percent in an NBC/Marist poll, and 43 percent to 35 percent in a PPP poll, suggesting the two are headed to a December runoff.

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Rep. Tom CottonThomas (Tom) Bryant CottonGOP rep introduces bill to block intelligence sharing with countries using Huawei for 5G Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers say Facebook deepfake ban falls short | House passes bills to win 5G race | Feds sound alarm on cyberthreat from Iran | Ivanka Trump appearance at tech show sparks backlash Cotton introduces bill blocking intel sharing with countries relying on Huawei for 5G MORE (R) leads Sen. Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorTom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation MORE (D) 49 percent to 41 percent in a PPP poll, while Pryor leads Cotton 45 percent to 43 percent in a poll for the state Democratic party by Opinion Research Associates.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Scott Brown (R) leads Sen Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48.7 percent to 48.2 percent in a New England College Polling Institute survey. Shaheen leads Brown 49 percent to 47 percent in a PPP poll and 46 percent to 43 percent in a University of New Hampshire poll

GA-SEN (OPEN): Businessman David Purdue (R) leads former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) 48 percent to her 44 percent in an NBC/Marist poll; 47 percent to 44 percent in a SurveyUSA poll; and 48 percent to 45 percent in an InsiderAdvantage poll. The two are tied in the latest survey from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

CO-SEN (UDALL): Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerMcConnell keeps press in check as impeachment trial starts Progressive group launches campaign targeting vulnerable GOP senators on impeachment What to watch for as Senate organizes impeachment on day one MORE (R) leads Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45 percent to 43 percent in the latest Quinnipiac survey. PPP gives Gardner 48 percent support to Udall’s 45 percent, and campaign manager Adam Dunstone tweeted that the senator’s most recent internal poll shows him tied with Gardner at 46 percent.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Greg Orman (I) leads Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 47 percent to 46 percent in a new PPP poll.

MI-SEN (OPEN): Gary Peters (D) leads Teri Lynn Land (R) 51 percent to Teri Lynn 38 percent in the latest PPP poll

IA-SEN (OPEN): Joni Ernst (R) and Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce Lowell Braley2020 caucuses pose biggest challenge yet for Iowa's top pollster OPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward MORE (D) both took 47 percent in Quinnipiac’s latest survey. PPP, meanwhile, gives Ernst 49 percent and Braley 46 percent support. 

MN-SEN (FRANKEN): Sen. Al FrankenAlan (Al) Stuart FrankenBill Press: Don't forget about Amy Key moments in the 2020 Democratic presidential race so far Al Franken mocks McConnell: 'Like listening to Jeffrey Dahmer complain about the decline of dinner party etiquette' MORE (D) leads Mike McFadden (R) 51 percent to 40 percent in a SurveyUSA poll.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) leads former North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) 46 percent to 44 percent in a poll from Democratic firm PPP. Tillis leads Hagan 46 percent to 44 percent in a survey from GOP firm Harper Polling.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Republican Dan Sullivan leads Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lobbying world MORE (D) 47 percent to 46 percent in a PPP poll.

CA-52 (PETERS): Former San Diego city councilman Carl DeMaio (R) leads Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) 45 percent to 44 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll.

ME-02 (OPEN): Bruce Poliquin (R) leads Emily Cain (D) 42.9 percent to 42 percent in a survey for the Maine People’s Resource Center.

GA-12 (BARROW): Rick Allen (R) leads Rep. John BarrowJohn Jenkins BarrowRepublican wins Georgia secretary of state runoff to replace Kemp The most important runoff election is one you probably never heard of Our democracy can’t afford to cut legal aid services from the budget MORE (D-Ga.) 47.3 percent to 45.7 percent in a poll from Landmark Communications.

NH-1 (SHEA-PORTER): Frank Guinta (R) leads Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) 52.2 percent to 42.9 percent in an NEC poll.

NH-2 (KUSTER): Rep. Ann McClane Kuster (D) leads Marilinda Garcia (R) 52.8 percent to 41.7 percent in an NEC survey.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

ROMNEY: Former White House nominee Mitt Romney (R) predicted Democrats are “gonna lose big time” in Tuesday’s elections.

CRUZ: Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzWhat to watch for on Day 2 of Senate impeachment trial Senate Republicans muscle through rules for Trump trial Cruz: White House not expected to push motion to dismiss impeachment articles MORE (R-Texas) said he wants a Republican-controlled Senate to focus on executive overreach by the Obama administration and to make the repeal of ObamaCare a priority.

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"A wave just doesn't happen. Waves happen when every single member of a cause or a movement come together. This is our time, we need to crush it and push their heads under over and over and over again until they cannot breathe anymore."

—New Hampshire GOP Chairwoman Jennifer Horn on making sure a Republican wave occurs on Tuesday