Five reasons Mary Landrieu lost
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Sen. Mary LandrieuMary Loretta LandrieuCongress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face Dems wrestle over how to vote on ‘Green New Deal’ Lobbying world MORE’s (D-La.) luck ran out Saturday night. 

The Democrat’s colleagues talk about her as a fighter who has won tough runoff elections in red Louisiana before, even if she was the underdog against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). But in 2014, a host of factors conspired to keep her from ultimately falling short for a fourth term. 

 

Collapse among white voters 

Landrieu’s support among black voters in Louisiana is nearly universal, but strategists in the state wondered if there were enough of them to counteract Cassidy’s huge lead among white voters.

There were not. 

Landrieu’s percentage of the black vote was in the high 90s on Nov. 4, but Cassidy took more than 80 percent of the white vote.

Democrats, particularly those in the South, have suffered a complete collapse among white voters. Landrieu was the last white Democrat from the Deep South in the Senate, and none remain in the House.

Some have been critical of Democrats for abandoning the populist message that once resonated with blue-collar whites. That’s something they’ll have to fix if they hope to turn things around in 2016. 

Sen. Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerTrump defends 'crime buster' Giuliani amid reported probe Louisiana voters head to the polls in governor's race as Trump urges GOP support Trump urges Louisiana voters to back GOP in governor's race then 'enjoy the game' MORE (D-N.Y.) has started that conversation on the left, arguing that Democrats misallocated their resources passing the healthcare law when they had majorities in both chambers. They should have focused on the plights of the middle class after the economic meltdown, he argued.

 

Fail Marys

Landrieu steamrolled into the lame duck session intent on passing a bill authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline.

If it worked, it would put space between herself and an unpopular president, remind voters in the energy-rich state of her seniority on a key energy committee, and would be evidence she has the clout to pull together a Democratic coalition when it mattered most. 

She fell one vote shy in an embarrassing defeat, while a version of the bill sponsored by Cassidy sailed through the House.

“A Keystone bill did pass one chamber of Congress, that was the Cassidy bill,” Cassidy said at a debate last week. “Sen. Landrieu could not get that passed in the Senate.” 

Landrieu’s true last gasp was to call into question Cassidy’s character. In the final weeks of the race, she turned the entire focus of her campaign to allegations that Cassidy overbilled Louisiana State University.

“He’s going to be fighting more than President Obama,” Landrieu said at the debate. “If he gets elected, which I doubt, he will be fighting subpoenas because this is going to be under investigation.” 

But Cassidy called the allegations “absolutely false” and effectively beat them back. Strategists in the state say it was too late for the controversy to take hold anyway.

 

Assault on the airwaves

This one wasn’t even close. 

According to an analysis by the Center for Public Integrity, Republicans and outside conservative groups pummeled Landrieu on TV and the radio, while the Louisiana Democrat was effectively silenced during the runoff period. 

The numbers are staggering – ads from outside groups attacking Landrieu at one point accounted for about 13,900 of the 14,000 TV spots that ran since the Nov. 4 jungle primary. 

“I wish she had more air cover,” Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyWatchdog accuses pro-Kavanaugh group of sending illegal robotexts in 2018 Lobbying world Trump nominees meet fiercest opposition from Warren, Sanders, Gillibrand MORE (D-Ind.) told The Hill. “I was there [campaigning] because she’s my friend, but more importantly she’s done an extraordinary job for the people of Louisiana and you don’t abandon your friends when times get tough.”

It was a stark contrast from the run-up to the Nov. 4 election, when the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and other liberal groups bet big, running about 19,000 TV ads.

But the Nov. 4 elections left many political watchers doubtful that Landrieu could survive another tough contest in the face of a Republican wave, and with the Senate majority no longer at stake, national Democrats and liberal groups opted to sit on their money. 

Senate Democrats' campaign arm announced early in the runoff period it wouldn’t spend on the race. The DSCC took out a $10 million loan in October, but spent big on races it ultimately lost on Election Day.

“The DSCC had no money, so it wasn’t that they pulled it,” Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonBottom Line Bottom Line Media and candidates should be ashamed that they don't talk about obesity MORE (D-Fla.) told The Hill.

Senate Democrats interviewed by The Hill said they did what they could to help Landrieu with money, but the conservative outside groups smelled blood and went all in.

Landrieu’s campaign was also swamped by ads from the Cassidy campaign, which ran nearly 5,000 TV ads against Landrieu’s 3,000 during the runoff period. Cassidy had more spending flexibility by virtue of out-raising Landrieu by about $500,000 during the runoff.           

 

Cassidy rallied conservatives early

Cassidy recognized early on that he needed to target those Republicans who supported Tea Party candidate Rob Maness in the general election. Maness took 14 percent and likely kept Cassidy from winning the jungle primary outright.

Democrats argued that those conservatives would stay home for the Dec. 6 runoff, but Maness embraced his one-time rival early in the period, and a snowball effect of Republican support ensued. 

Conservatives like Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, and the Tea Party Express, who backed Maness in general election, became vocal proponents of Cassidy. Other Republicans who stayed out of the race during the general election, like Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul calls for probe of Democrats over Ukraine letter Sunday Show Preview: Trump's allies and administration defend decision on Syria Ana Navarro clashes with Rand Paul in fiery exchange: 'Don't mansplain!' MORE (R-Ky.) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), soon followed. 

Paul headlined the first “unity rally” in Louisiana for Cassidy about a week after Election Day, which caught on and became must-attend events for party heavyweights.

In addition to Paul, Palin and Jindal, Sen. David VitterDavid Bruce VitterTrump calls on Republicans to vote out Democratic Louisiana governor amid GOP infighting Grocery group hires new top lobbyist Lobbying World MORE (R-La.), “Duck Dynasty”star Phil Robertson, Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainVideo of fake Trump shooting members of media shown at his Miami resort: report Remembering leaders who put country above party Graham-Trump rollercoaster hits dizzying speed MORE (R-Ariz.), and Dr. Ben Carson have all participated. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioFurious Republicans prepare to rebuke Trump on Syria Five ways Trump's Syria decision spells trouble Rubio criticizes Warren response on same-sex marriage opposition as condescending MORE (Fla.), Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Tim ScottTimothy (Tim) Eugene ScottBlood cancer patients deserve equal access to the cure Rand Paul: 'We deserve to know' identity of Trump whistleblower Bottom Line MORE (S.C.) all participated.

Democrats began turning out for Landrieu on the campaign trail after the Keystone gambit, but strategists say by then all the energy in the campaign was on Cassidy’s side.

 

Doomed from the start 

The deck was deeply stacked against the Louisiana Democrat.

The midterm electorate is typically more favorable to Republicans, and voters were ready to take out their frustrations with President Obama on any Democrat that had the bad fortune of running in 2014.

The Republican wave earned the GOP their largest majority in the House in decades, and they easily picked up a convincing majority in the Senate.

Landrieu on Saturday joined her colleagues, Sens. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lobbying world MORE (D-Alaska), Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganWarning signs flash for Tillis in North Carolina Tillis trails Democratic challenger by 7 points in North Carolina poll North Carolina businessman will challenge Tillis in GOP primary MORE (D-N.C.), Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorMedicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm MORE (D-Ark), and Mark UdallMark Emery UdallPoll: Trump trails three Democrats by 10 points in Colorado The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and the new Israel-'squad' controversy Colorado candidates vying to take on Gardner warn Hickenlooper they won't back down MORE (D-Colo.), as Democratic incumbents who were washed out in the wave.

If Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) runs for governor, and Landrieu has the appetite for another campaign, she may find more favorable political winds in 2016.