Real estate mogul Donald TrumpDonald TrumpOhio Republican who voted to impeach Trump says he won't seek reelection Youngkin breaks with Trump on whether Democrats will cheat in the Virginia governor's race Trump endorses challenger in Michigan AG race MORE leads his Republican presidential rivals in the first post-debate poll of likely GOP voters in New Hampshire.
According to the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll released Tuesday morning, Trump, who had yet to join the race when a previous poll of the state was conducted in March, tops the GOP field with 18 percent support.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows in second place, with 13 percent.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina saw their political stock soar following their performances during last Thursday’s debate: Kasich surged to third place, with 12 percent support, and Fiorina received 9 percent.
Kasich is staking his candidacy on winning in New Hampshire, which has as history of favoring mainstream conservative and establishment-minded candidates.
Kasich’s political team is run by operatives with deep experience in the state, and his super-PAC is so far drowning out the competition on the airwaves, having spent $4 million on TV ads in July and August alone.
Fiorina was the overwhelming winner of the undercard debate last week, and now she’s reaping a windfall in the polls. The Franklin Pierce survey found her emerging from obscurity to rise to fifth place.
Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by National Industries for the Blind - Schumer: Dem unity will happen eventually; Newsom prevails The Memo: Like the dress or not, Ocasio-Cortez is driving the conversation again Ocasio-Cortez defends attendance of Met Gala amid GOP uproar MORE (Texas) also saw a bump in his standing following the debate, joining the double-digit club with 10 percent, after a 1-point increase from March.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie both experienced dramatic declines in popularity since the last FPU/Herald poll.
Walker, who was tied for first place, with 15 percent, has dropped to 4 percent, tied with Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioOvernight Defense & National Security — Milley becomes lightning rod Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley becomes lightning rod on right GOP senators unveil bill designating Taliban as terrorist organization MORE (R-Fla.) and Ben Carson. Christie, who was in fourth place with 10 percent, has plummeted to 2 percent.
A plurality of Trump supporters, 45 percent, say they’re supporting him because he’s best suited to take the country in a new direction.
Though Trump is riding high, his lead is far from bulletproof.
In the poll, 29 percent of respondents picked Trump as their presidential nominee the day after the Republican debate, but just 15 percent of those surveyed picked the businessman two days later, signaling that his controversial comments about Fox News host and debate moderator Megyn Kelly may have hurt him.
The poll had good news for Bush.
He and Rubio are the two most popular candidates in the field, with 62 percent of GOP primary voters saying they have a positive view of them. That’s a bump of 9 points for Bush over the same poll from March, and an increase of 7 points for Rubio.
A plurality of New Hampshire Republicans, 27 percent, say Bush is most likely to win the GOP nomination, followed by Trump at 16 percent. No other candidate scores at more than 4 percent on that question.
Most Bush supporters say they support him because he’s the candidate who can work with Democrats as well as Republicans.
The poll of 414 likely GOP voters was conducted Aug. 7–10 and his a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Updated at 3 p.m.