Poll: Trump's Florida lead down to single digits
© Getty Images

Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioRubio's pragmatic thinking on China The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump feuds heat up Rubio to introduce legislation to keep Supreme Court at 9 seats MORE (R-Fla.) has cut Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpCummings says Ivanka Trump not preserving all official communications Property is a fundamental right that is now being threatened 25 states could see severe flooding in coming weeks, scientists say MORE's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.

Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent. 

It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead. 

In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.

Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.

The loss would also be a significant blow to Trump, given that Florida is a winner-take-all state awarding 99 delegates. 

The Monmouth poll finds Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzBiden-Abrams ticket would be a genius media move Families of Kenyan victims seek compensation for Ethiopian Airlines crash 737 crisis tests Boeing's clout in Washington MORE (R-Texas) taking 17 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich winning 10 percent. 

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

In a hypothetical head-to-head vote between Trump and Rubio in the state, Trump still edges Rubio out, taking 47 percent of the vote to Rubio's 45 percent, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted by phone from March 3 to 6 among 403 Florida voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. There is a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Florida, which has 99 delegates at stake, will hold its primary on March 15.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls also shows Trump leading Rubio in Florida, but by a larger margin. Trump holds an 18.7 percent lead over the senator.

On Saturday, Rubio declined to say whether he will drop out of the race if he loses his home state primary.