GOP primaries

Poll: Trump has commanding 34-point lead in New York

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a commanding 34-point lead over Ted Cruz in New York, according to a new poll.

An Emerson College Polling Society survey released Friday found Trump taking 56 percent support, followed by Cruz at 22 percent and John Kasich at 17 percent.

However, there are warning signs for Trump in the poll. 

{mosads}He has fallen 8 points from the same survey released in mid-March, while Cruz has gained 10 and Kasich has picked up 16. In the previous poll, Trump was at 64 percent support, followed by Cruz at 12, Marco Rubio at 4, and Kasich at 1.

There are 95 delegates up for grabs in New York’s April 19 primary, making it the second largest prize still on the map behind only California, which doesn’t hold its primary until the last day of elections on June 7.

Trump needs a big victory in his home state to get back on pace to reach the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright and avoid a contested convention.

If Trump falls short of that threshold but enters the convention with a plurality of delegates, 69 percent of Republicans in New York said he should still be awarded the nomination.

Only 31 percent said they’d want to see a contested convention if no candidate reaches a majority of delegates but one candidate arrives with a big lead.

Trump is going all in on New York in an attempt to win all 95 delegates. He has cancelled planned campaign stops in California and Colorado this week to focus exclusively on his home state.

Trump is almost certain to win the 14 delegates that will be bound to the statewide winner. 

But the rest of the 81 delegates will be allocated at the Congressional district level. If Trump can top 50 percent in each district, it would turn New York into a winner-take-all for him.

The Emerson survey said Trump is certain to pass the 50 percent mark in 5 of the 27 districts. In 11 others, he “stands a good chance” of surpassing that threshold. There are four districts where Trump is leading but could have to split the delegate haul, and only seven districts where Cruz is competing to win.

Whether Trump achieves a clean sweep in New York, his current standing makes it highly likely that at the very least he’ll take a strong majority of delegates.

Trump needs to win about 60 percent of the delegates still outstanding to reach 1,237.

The businessman, who was born in Queens, leads among every major demographic in New York. He takes 61 percent support among men, 51 percent support among women, and leads with every age group.

Emerson did not test the candidate favorability rating in this survey, but in the poll from last month, Trump was viewed positively by 71 percent of New York Republicans, compared to 54 percent for Kasich and 52 percent for Cruz.

Trump’s New York supporters are fiercely loyal to him, the new survey found. Eighty-two percent of Trump’s supporters say that in addition to voting for him, they also like him. Only 45 percent of Cruz’s supporters said the same.

Still, Trump would get thumped by Hillary Clinton in their shared home state if they were to face off in the fall.

In a hypothetical general election match-up, Clinton takes 54 percent support over Trump at 36.

Clinton would beat Cruz even worse – 58 to 30. Kasich runs closest to her, but still trails by 7 points.

The Emerson survey of 321 likely GOP primary voters was conducted between April 6-7 and has a 5.4 percent margin of error.

This story was updated at 1:17 p.m.

Tags Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio New York Ted Cruz

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