Capps leads Maldonado by 51 to 40 percent in the Democratic-leaning district, which gave President Obama 56 percent of its vote in 2008.

Maldonado released a poll last week showing him trailing Capps by two points, 48 to 46 percent.

Partisan polls tend to favor their candidates by a few points and the poll was conducted on July 23. One-day polls tend to be less reliable. But the results indicate that Capps is likely to survive this election. The Hill rates the race as "leaning Democratic."


The poll of 379 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

This post was updated at 2:55 p.m.