The polling, conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for progressive group MoveOn.org, shows a generic Democratic candidate leading Republican Reps. Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceBottom line Bottom line California was key factor in House GOP's 2020 success MORE (Calif.), Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaHow lawmakers aided the Afghan evacuation Dozens of Sacramento students remain in Afghanistan after US pullout, district says Seven San Diego-area families evacuated from Afghanistan after summer trip abroad MORE (Calif.), Scott TiptonScott R. TiptonBoebert discloses husband's earnings as consultant for energy firm Gosar's office denies he will appear on popular QAnon talk show Democrats press to bar lawmakers from carrying guns in the Capitol MORE (Colo.), John MicaJohn Luigi MicaRep. Stephanie Murphy says she's 'seriously considering' 2022 challenge to Rubio Media barred from bringing bulletproof vests, gas masks and helmets to inauguration On The Trail: The political losers of 2020 MORE (Fla.), Mario Diaz-BalartMario Rafael Diaz-BalartDefense contractors ramp up donations to GOP election objectors Bottom line GOP lawmakers ask Biden administration for guidance on reopening cruise industry MORE (Fla.), Peter Roskam Peter James RoskamBottom line Postcards become unlikely tool in effort to oust Trump Bottom line MORE (Ill.), Justin AmashJustin AmashDemocrats defend Afghan withdrawal amid Taliban advance Vietnam shadow hangs over Biden decision on Afghanistan Kamala Harris and our shameless politics MORE (Mich.), Scott GarrettErnest (Scott) Scott GarrettOn The Trail: The political losers of 2020 Biz groups take victory lap on Ex-Im Bank Export-Import Bank back to full strength after Senate confirmations MORE (N.J.), Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenBottom line Republican lobbying firms riding high despite uncertainty of 2020 race Ex-Rep. Frelinghuysen joins law and lobby firm MORE (N.J.), Steve StiversSteven (Steve) Ernst StiversTrump asks if Rand Paul has 'learned lesson' on endorsements Five takeaways from the Ohio special primaries Trump-backed Mike Carey wins GOP primary in Ohio special election MORE (Ohio), Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciGovernors' races see flood of pro-Trump candidates Former House Republican to challenge DeWine for Ohio gubernatorial nomination The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Republicans seek to sink Jan. 6 commission MORE (Ohio), Joe PittsJoseph (Joe) R. PittsBottom Line Progress in the fight against human trafficking Pitts op-ed misses mark on Democrat 'betrayals' over ObamaCare MORE (Pa.), Robert HurtRobert HurtThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by the Coalition for Affordable Prescription Drugs — GOP faces ‘green wave’ in final stretch to the midterms Democrat defeats controversial chair of House Wall Street subpanel Republican groups launch final ad blitz in key House battlegrounds MORE (Va.) and Tom Petri (Wisc.), prior to respondents receiving any information about the shutdown.
And six GOP incumbents — Reps. Dave Camp (Mich.), Leonard LanceLeonard LanceKean Jr. to run against Malinowski: report Thomas Kean wins GOP primary to take on Rep. Tom Malinowski Gun debate to shape 2020 races MORE (N.J.), Richard HannaRichard HannaDems unveil bill to block Trump Muslim ban Rep. Gowdy rips Republican for 'unfortunate' Benghazi remark Republican: Benghazi probe 'designed to go after' Hillary MORE (N.Y.), Michael Turner (Ohio), Rob WittmanRobert (Rob) Joseph WittmanOvernight Defense: House Armed Services starts defense bill markups | Two Navy sailors die of COVID-19 | Pentagon reimposes mask mandate in some places Passport backlog threatens to upend travel plans for millions of Americans Overnight Defense: Intel releases highly anticipated UFO report | Biden meets with Afghan president | Conservatives lash out at Milley MORE (Va.) and Reid RibbleReid James RibbleThe Memo: What now for anti-Trump Republicans? Influential Republicans threaten to form new party Former Sen. Tom Coburn dies at 72 MORE (Wisc.) — all take a hit when respondents are told they supported a shutdown, with a generic Democrat either leading or tying each one.
Democrats only need to pick up 17 seats to take back the majority, and previous PPP polling has shown a similar result for the party, prompting speculation that if the 2014 elections were held today, Democrats would take back the House.
And a new CNN-ORC survey released Monday showed a majority of Americans, 54 percent, opposing Republican control of the House.
Still, Democrats aren't yet contesting and don't have contenders in most of those districts. The real concern for Republicans lies in the overall opposition to the shutdown, and the fact that backlash is significant enough that it appears to be hurting even lawmakers considered safe.
But the polling memo itself, written by PPP's Jim Williams, issues a warning even as it strikes an optimistic tone:
"A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if," Williams writes, "voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014."
Republicans note that it's still more than a year out from Election Day, and problems with ObamaCare could overshadow the shutdown and minimize any damage the party has suffered thus far.
Sample sizes for PPP's new surveys were between 600-1,000 voters per district, and the surveys were conducted Oct. 15-18.