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The polling, conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for progressive group MoveOn.org, shows a generic Democratic candidate leading Republican Reps. Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceThe most expensive congressional races of the last decade Mystery surrounds elusive sanctions on Russia Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers struggle to understand Facebook's Libra project | EU hits Amazon with antitrust probe | New cybersecurity concerns over census | Robocall, election security bills head to House floor | Privacy questions over FaceApp MORE (Calif.), Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaDuncan Hunter to plead guilty to campaign finance violations Why the GOP march of mad hatters poses a threat to our Democracy Elijah Cummings, native son of Baltimore, gets emotional send-off from Democratic luminaries MORE (Calif.), Scott TiptonScott R. TiptonDemocrats launch bilingual ad campaign off drug pricing bill This week: House to vote on Turkey sanctions bill House Dems unveil initial GOP targets in 2020 MORE (Colo.), John MicaJohn Luigi MicaHillicon Valley — Presented by CTIA and America's wireless industry — Lawmaker sees political payback in fight over 'deepfakes' measure | Tech giants to testify at hearing on 'censorship' claims | Google pulls the plug on AI council Lawmaker alleges political payback in failed 'deepfakes' measure GOP chairman slams ‘pitiful’ FEMA response in Louisiana MORE (Fla.), Mario Diaz-BalartMario Rafael Diaz-BalartOn The Money: Lawmakers strike spending deal | US, China reach limited trade deal ahead of tariff deadline | Lighthizer fails to quell GOP angst over new NAFTA House passes bill that would give legal status to thousands of undocumented farmworkers House passes stopgap as spending talks stall MORE (Fla.), Peter Roskam Peter James RoskamHouse votes to temporarily repeal Trump SALT deduction cap Feehery: How Republicans can win back the suburbs Ex-GOP Rep. Roskam joins lobbying firm MORE (Ill.), Justin AmashJustin AmashOvernight Defense: Foreign policy takes center stage at Democratic debate | House delivers impeachment articles to Senate | Dems vow to force new vote on Trump's border wall House votes to send impeachment articles to Senate Amash: Trump claim about US embassy threats 'seems to be totally made up' MORE (Mich.), Scott GarrettErnest (Scott) Scott GarrettBiz groups take victory lap on Ex-Im Bank Export-Import Bank back to full strength after Senate confirmations Manufacturers support Reed to helm Ex-Im Bank MORE (N.J.), Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Top House GOP appropriations staffer moves to lobbying shop Individuals with significant disabilities need hope and action MORE (N.J.), Steve StiversSteven (Steve) Ernst StiversKoch campaign touts bipartisan group behind ag labor immigration bill Waters clashes with Trump officials over 'disastrous' housing plans Financial sector's work on SAFE Banking Act shows together, everyone achieves more MORE (Ohio), Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciDemocrats fear Ohio slipping further away in 2020 Medicare for All won't deliver what Democrats promise GOP rep: If Mueller had found collusion, 'investigation would have wrapped up very quickly' MORE (Ohio), Joe PittsJoseph (Joe) R. PittsBottom Line Progress in the fight against human trafficking Pitts op-ed misses mark on Democrat 'betrayals' over ObamaCare MORE (Pa.), Robert HurtRobert HurtThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by the Coalition for Affordable Prescription Drugs — GOP faces ‘green wave’ in final stretch to the midterms Democrat defeats controversial chair of House Wall Street subpanel Republican groups launch final ad blitz in key House battlegrounds MORE (Va.) and Tom Petri (Wisc.), prior to respondents receiving any information about the shutdown.

And six GOP incumbents — Reps. Dave Camp (Mich.), Leonard LanceLeonard LanceGun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs Bottom Line MORE (N.J.), Richard HannaRichard HannaDems unveil bill to block Trump Muslim ban Rep. Gowdy rips Republican for 'unfortunate' Benghazi remark Republican: Benghazi probe 'designed to go after' Hillary MORE (N.Y.), Michael Turner (Ohio), Rob WittmanRobert (Rob) Joseph WittmanRepublicans eye top spot on Natural Resources panel The Suburban Caucus: Solutions for America's suburbs Overnight Defense: Top general briefs GOP senators on Syria plan | Senators 'encouraged' by briefing | Pence huddles with Republican allies on Syria | Trump nominee sidesteps questions on arms treaties MORE (Va.) and Reid RibbleReid James RibbleFormer GOP lawmakers, officials ask court to enforce House subpoena on McGahn Keep our elections free and fair Setting the record straight about No Labels MORE (Wisc.) — all take a hit when respondents are told they supported a shutdown, with a generic Democrat either leading or tying each one.

Democrats only need to pick up 17 seats to take back the majority, and previous PPP polling has shown a similar result for the party, prompting speculation that if the 2014 elections were held today, Democrats would take back the House.

And a new CNN-ORC survey released Monday showed a majority of Americans, 54 percent, opposing Republican control of the House.

Still, Democrats aren't yet contesting and don't have contenders in most of those districts. The real concern for Republicans lies in the overall opposition to the shutdown, and the fact that backlash is significant enough that it appears to be hurting even lawmakers considered safe.

But the polling memo itself, written by PPP's Jim Williams, issues a warning even as it strikes an optimistic tone:

"A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if," Williams writes, "voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014."

Republicans note that it's still more than a year out from Election Day, and problems with ObamaCare could overshadow the shutdown and minimize any damage the party has suffered thus far.

Sample sizes for PPP's new surveys were between 600-1,000 voters per district, and the surveys were conducted Oct. 15-18.