Conventional wisdom says that a candidate needs a strong base of support to turn out voters for the caucus-style election in Iowa. Gingrich has struggled to put together a solid ground game; he only opened his campaign office in Iowa this month, and with less than two weeks before the Jan. 3 election, has to leave for Virginia to gather signatures to make sure he appears on that state’s primary ballot.

Fifty-eight percent of those who backed Gingrich in the poll, and 38 percent who backed Romney, said they were only “leaning to” those candidates or were “still undecided,” indicating that their support in Iowa is softer than their poll numbers suggest.

Still, a lot could change in next 13 days. Thirty-four percent of those surveyed said they were only “leaning to” a candidate, while 37.8 percent said they were still “trying to decide.”