Poll: Cruz, Clinton lead in Texas
© Greg Nash

Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzO’Rourke not ruling out being vice presidential candidate CNN ripped for hiring former Republican operative as political editor: 'WTF?!?!' The Hill's Morning Report - Can Bernie recapture 2016 magic? MORE leads the GOP field in his home state of Texas, a new poll finds.

Cruz takes 38 percent support, while Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpJustice Department preparing for Mueller report as soon as next week: reports Smollett lawyers declare 'Empire' star innocent Pelosi asks members to support resolution against emergency declaration MORE receives 29 percent, according to a University of Texas-Texas Tribune survey released on Tuesday.

That’s in line with the RealClearPolitics average, which finds Cruz leading Trump 37 to 28 in the state.

ADVERTISEMENT

“It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

Rounding out the field are Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump escalates fight with NY Times The Hill's Morning Report - Can Bernie recapture 2016 magic? Venezuela puts spotlight on Rubio MORE, at 15 percent; Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race over the weekend, at 6 percent; John Kasich, at 5 percent; and Ben Carson, at 4 percent.

Voters in Texas will cast ballots on March 1, known as Super Tuesday, along with 10 other states.

Cruz’s surrogates acknowledge that Texas is a must-win state for him, as a home loss would call into question his prospects elsewhere.

Cruz has long held that the Southern states casting ballots on Super Tuesday will be his firewall, but a disappointing finish in South Carolina on Saturday has raised doubts about his evangelical support and organizational strength.

Among self-described “churchgoers” in Texas, though, Cruz leads Trump by double-digits, while Trump leads Cruz by double-digits among those who never attend church.

Texas will award its 155 delegates proportionately, with Cruz and Trump poised to take the lion’s share, according to most surveys.

On the Democratic side, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonFBI’s top lawyer believed Hillary Clinton should face charges, but was talked out of it Harris adds key Clinton aide, women of color to 2020 campaign: report Democrats more likely Trump's foil, than to foil Trump MORE leads Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersBernie Sanders to sign pledge affirming he will run as a Democrat Overnight Health Care — Presented by National Taxpayers Union — Drug pricing fight centers on insulin | Florida governor working with Trump to import cheaper drugs | Dems blast proposed ObamaCare changes Hillicon Valley: Microsoft reveals new Russian hack attempts | Google failed to disclose hidden microphone | Booker makes late HQ2 bid | Conservative group targets Ocasio-Cortez over Amazon MORE, 54 to 44.

Clinton is running up the score among minority voters in Texas, leading 70 to 27 with African-Americans, and 60 to 37 with Hispanics.

Sanders, meanwhile, takes 55 percent among white voters, compared to 44 for Clinton.

Clinton leads among every age group in the poll except for those between 18 and 29. Among the youngest voters, Sanders leads 62 to 29.

The UT-TT survey of 1,200 voters was conducted Feb. 12–19. The GOP poll has 4.2 point margin of error and the Democratic poll has a 5.4 point margin of error.