Poll: Cruz, Clinton lead in Texas
© Greg Nash

Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Hill's Campaign Report: COVID-19 puts conventions in flux  Ted Cruz bashes Oprah for 'lecture' on race: 'What utter, racist BS' Senate Democrats prepare seven-figure spending spree in Texas MORE leads the GOP field in his home state of Texas, a new poll finds.

Cruz takes 38 percent support, while Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpLincoln Project ad dubs Jared Kushner the 'Secretary of Failure' Pence: Chief Justice Roberts 'has been a disappointment to conservatives' Twitter bans Trump campaign until it deletes tweet with COVID-19 misinformation MORE receives 29 percent, according to a University of Texas-Texas Tribune survey released on Tuesday.

That’s in line with the RealClearPolitics average, which finds Cruz leading Trump 37 to 28 in the state.

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“It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

Rounding out the field are Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioHillicon Valley: Facebook removes Trump post | TikTok gets competitor | Lawmakers raise grid safety concerns Skepticism grows over Friday deadline for coronavirus deal ACLU targets Democrats, Republicans with mobile coronavirus billboards MORE, at 15 percent; Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race over the weekend, at 6 percent; John Kasich, at 5 percent; and Ben Carson, at 4 percent.

Voters in Texas will cast ballots on March 1, known as Super Tuesday, along with 10 other states.

Cruz’s surrogates acknowledge that Texas is a must-win state for him, as a home loss would call into question his prospects elsewhere.

Cruz has long held that the Southern states casting ballots on Super Tuesday will be his firewall, but a disappointing finish in South Carolina on Saturday has raised doubts about his evangelical support and organizational strength.

Among self-described “churchgoers” in Texas, though, Cruz leads Trump by double-digits, while Trump leads Cruz by double-digits among those who never attend church.

Texas will award its 155 delegates proportionately, with Cruz and Trump poised to take the lion’s share, according to most surveys.

On the Democratic side, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonPence: Chief Justice Roberts 'has been a disappointment to conservatives' Top federal official says more details coming on foreign election interference The Hill's Campaign Report: COVID-19 puts conventions in flux  MORE leads Bernie SandersBernie SandersProgressives soaring after big primary night 'Absolutely incredible': Ocasio-Cortez congratulates Cori Bush on upset victory over Lacy Clay Sanders supporters launch six-figure ad campaign explaining why they're voting for Biden MORE, 54 to 44.

Clinton is running up the score among minority voters in Texas, leading 70 to 27 with African-Americans, and 60 to 37 with Hispanics.

Sanders, meanwhile, takes 55 percent among white voters, compared to 44 for Clinton.

Clinton leads among every age group in the poll except for those between 18 and 29. Among the youngest voters, Sanders leads 62 to 29.

The UT-TT survey of 1,200 voters was conducted Feb. 12–19. The GOP poll has 4.2 point margin of error and the Democratic poll has a 5.4 point margin of error.