Poll: Cruz, Clinton lead in Texas
© Greg Nash

Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzViral video shows O’Rourke air-drumming to the Who’s ‘Baba O’Riley’ after Cruz debate Five takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate NY Times, McCabe give Trump perfect cover to fire Rosenstein, Sessions MORE leads the GOP field in his home state of Texas, a new poll finds.

Cruz takes 38 percent support, while Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpSunday shows preview: Trump sells U.N. reorganizing and Kavanaugh allegations dominate Ex-Trump staffer out at CNN amid “false and defamatory accusations” Democrats opposed to Pelosi lack challenger to topple her MORE receives 29 percent, according to a University of Texas-Texas Tribune survey released on Tuesday.

That’s in line with the RealClearPolitics average, which finds Cruz leading Trump 37 to 28 in the state.

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“It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

Rounding out the field are Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioNikki Haley: New York Times ‘knew the facts’ about curtains and still released story March For Our Lives founder leaves group, says he regrets trying to 'embarrass' Rubio Rubio unloads on Turkish chef for 'feasting' Venezuela's Maduro: 'I got pissed' MORE, at 15 percent; Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race over the weekend, at 6 percent; John Kasich, at 5 percent; and Ben Carson, at 4 percent.

Voters in Texas will cast ballots on March 1, known as Super Tuesday, along with 10 other states.

Cruz’s surrogates acknowledge that Texas is a must-win state for him, as a home loss would call into question his prospects elsewhere.

Cruz has long held that the Southern states casting ballots on Super Tuesday will be his firewall, but a disappointing finish in South Carolina on Saturday has raised doubts about his evangelical support and organizational strength.

Among self-described “churchgoers” in Texas, though, Cruz leads Trump by double-digits, while Trump leads Cruz by double-digits among those who never attend church.

Texas will award its 155 delegates proportionately, with Cruz and Trump poised to take the lion’s share, according to most surveys.

On the Democratic side, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonPompeo: 'We've not been successful' in changing US-Russia relations Michael Moore ties Obama to Trump's win in Michigan in 2016 The Memo: Could Kavanaugh furor spark another ‘year of the woman’? MORE leads Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersFive takeaways from Cruz, O'Rourke's fiery first debate Ben & Jerry’s co-founders announce effort to help 7 Dem House challengers Dems look to Gillum, Abrams for pathway to victory in tough states MORE, 54 to 44.

Clinton is running up the score among minority voters in Texas, leading 70 to 27 with African-Americans, and 60 to 37 with Hispanics.

Sanders, meanwhile, takes 55 percent among white voters, compared to 44 for Clinton.

Clinton leads among every age group in the poll except for those between 18 and 29. Among the youngest voters, Sanders leads 62 to 29.

The UT-TT survey of 1,200 voters was conducted Feb. 12–19. The GOP poll has 4.2 point margin of error and the Democratic poll has a 5.4 point margin of error.