Fair political polling is a statistical balancing act
Poll: Clinton leads Trump in Arizona
A survey by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights found Clinton taking 46.5 percent support over Trump at 42.2 percent.
About 6 percent of respondents said they would vote for an unspecified third-party candidate, while 5.6 percent said they're undecided.
Former President Bill Clinton is the last Democrat to carry the state, narrowly defeating Bob Dole there in 1996, when Reform Party candidate Ross Perot was also on the ballot. Prior to Clinton, the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was Harry Truman, in 1948.
Mitt Romney defeated President Obama in Arizona in 2012 by 9 points.
"It's shocking to think that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today, considering that every statewide office in Arizona is held by a Republican as well as significant majorities in the Arizona House and Senate," Wes Gullett, a partner at OH Predictive Insights, told the Phoenix Business Journal. "Arizona should be a reliable red state."
There are a handful of states with diverse electorates and growing minority populations that Democrats believe they can compete in with Trump at the top of the ticket.
Recent surveys have also shown close races in Utah and Georgia.
The poll of 1,060 voters in Arizona was conducted on June 20.