Nate Silver: Trump would likely win if election were held today
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Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald TrumpDonald TrumpHouse votes to condemn Chinese government over Hong Kong Former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at age 93 White House readies for Chauvin verdict MORE would be favored to win if the general election occurred today.

If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term:

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016

Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonPelosi on power in DC: 'You have to seize it' Cuba readies for life without Castro Chelsea Clinton: Pics of Trump getting vaccinated would help him 'claim credit' MORE, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight.


FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however.

It has Clinton’s odds at 53.7 percent, to Trump’s 46.2 percent, when it discounts polls taken immediately after last week's Republican National Convention.

Clinton’s odds rise to 58.2 percent to Trump’s 41.7 percent when factoring in economic and historical data.

FiveThirtyEight said it forecasts win probabilities by simulating the election 20,000 times, producing a distribution of possible outcomes for every state nationwide.