Nate Silver: Trump would likely win if election were held today
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Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald TrumpDonald TrumpPence: Supreme Court has chance to right 'historic wrong' with abortion ruling Prosecutor says during trial that actor Jussie Smollett staged 'fake hate crime' Overnight Defense & National Security — US, Iran return to negotiating table MORE would be favored to win if the general election occurred today.

If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term:

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016

Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonCountering the ongoing Republican delusion Republicans seem set to win the midterms — unless they defeat themselves Poll: Democracy is under attack, and more violence may be the future MORE, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight.


FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however.

It has Clinton’s odds at 53.7 percent, to Trump’s 46.2 percent, when it discounts polls taken immediately after last week's Republican National Convention.

Clinton’s odds rise to 58.2 percent to Trump’s 41.7 percent when factoring in economic and historical data.

FiveThirtyEight said it forecasts win probabilities by simulating the election 20,000 times, producing a distribution of possible outcomes for every state nationwide.