Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Democrats see victory in a voting rights defeat Left laughs off floated changes to 2024 ticket A year into his presidency, Biden is polling at an all-time low MORE gets 348 electoral votes to Donald TrumpDonald TrumpSanders calls out Manchin, Sinema ahead of filibuster showdown Laura Ingraham 'not saying' if she'd support Trump in 2024 The Hill's 12:30 Report: Djokovic may not compete in French Open over vaccine requirement MORE’s 190 in the latest edition of the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics.
The projection site also counts Clinton as having 273 electoral votes from safe states and likely Democratic states, which puts her over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the presidency for the first time.
The Crystal Ball moved New Hampshire from leans Democrat to likely Democrat in the edition published on Thursday because the Democratic nominee has a 7- to 8-point lead according to polls in the state.
“We waited a while, despite favorable polls for Clinton, because it once seemed reasonable to imagine Trump making a play for the land of Live Free or Die,” write Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley.
They then write that Trump’s surge of support among blue-collar, non-college graduate white voters shows less potential in New Hampshire, which has the fourth largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites with at least a bachelor’s degree in the country.
The GOP nominee has the potential to make plays in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa, they said.
The battleground map includes no toss-up states. It counts 348 electoral votes coming from states that are safe Democrat, likely Democrat or leaning Democrat compared to 190 that are safe Republican, likely Republican or leaning Republican.
“To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state,” the model organizers said in their analysis.
“Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration,” they concluded.
The Sabato map is the latest to project that Clinton would be likely to win more than 270 electoral votes if the election were held today.