FiveThirtyEight: Trump would win if election were held today

Donald TrumpDonald TrumpDOJ asks Supreme Court to revive Boston Marathon bomber death sentence, in break with Biden vow Biden looking to build momentum for Putin meeting DOJ tells media execs that reporters were not targets of investigations MORE would beat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonNSA leaker Reality Winner released from federal prison Monica Lewinsky signs production deal with 20th TV Police investigating death of TV anchor who uncovered Clinton tarmac meeting as suicide MORE if votes for president were cast today, according to the election results predictor designed by top pollster Nate Silver.


FiveThirtyEight’s “now-cast” model is giving Trump a nearly 10-point edge over Clinton in response to the question, “Who would win the presidency today?”

Silver previously gave the Republican presidential nominee a sizable advantage over his Democratic rival in late July, following the Republican National Convention.

Today’s prediction comes just hours before the crucial first presidential debate.

Clinton, the Democratic nominee, still holds the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s two other predictive models: polls-plus forecast and polls-only forecast.

In both models she leads by a narrow margin of 3.6 percentage points.

The website's electoral map graphic appears to show Clinton winning over 270 electoral votes in all three models, though in its calculation of total electoral votes won by each nominee, Trump receives 275.9 votes to Clinton's 261.9.

UPDATE 3:53 p.m.: New polls released since Monday morning have led FiveThirtyEight to revise their now-cast in Clinton's favor.