Trump facing must-win debate

Donald TrumpDonald TrumpNoem touts South Dakota coronavirus response, knocks lockdowns in CPAC speech On The Trail: Cuomo and Newsom — a story of two embattled governors McCarthy: 'I would bet my house' GOP takes back lower chamber in 2022 MORE needs a win at the second presidential debate on Sunday if he is to build on the momentum that his running mate, Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PenceDemocrats don't trust GOP on 1/6 commission: 'These people are dangerous' The Memo: CPAC fires starting gun on 2024 Merrick Garland is right to prioritize domestic terrorism, but he'll need a bigger boat MORE, has created for him.

Pence, the governor of Indiana, is widely seen as having bested his Democratic counterpart, Virginia Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineOvernight Defense: Biden sends message with Syria airstrike | US intel points to Saudi crown prince in Khashoggi killing | Pentagon launches civilian-led sexual assault commission Biden administration to give Congress full classified briefing on Syria strikes by next week Senators given no timeline on removal of National Guard, Capitol fence MORE, at the sole vice presidential debate on Tuesday evening.

In doing so, Pence turned the page on a dismal period for Trump — a stretch marked by an ineffective debate performance, a feud with a former Miss Universe, damaging tax revelations and a steady slide in opinion polls. 

At a rally in Henderson, Nev., on Wednesday, Trump praised Pence — and himself. Saying that Pence did “an incredible job,” Trump added, “I’m getting a lot of credit because that’s really my first so-called choice; that’s really my first hire, as we would say in Las Vegas.”

Pence’s apparent success on Tuesday seems unlikely to fundamentally change the shape of the race; vice presidential debates rarely do. But the stakes could hardly be higher as Trump prepares to face Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonMedia circles wagons for conspiracy theorist Neera Tanden The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by The AIDS Institute - Senate ref axes minimum wage, House votes today on relief bill Democratic strategists start women-run media consulting firm MORE in St. Louis on Oct. 9.  

“How many times have all the pundits been interviewed saying, ‘Trump is finally finished’?” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor who specializes in political communications. “That must have happened 10 times. The problem now is the clock is running down. We’ll be at four weeks, three weeks, two weeks. Can he pull the rabbit out of the hat one more time?” 

Before the first Trump-Clinton clash, the GOP nominee’s advisers let it be known that he was not engaging in prolonged, formal preparations. 

But with the second debate now of magnified importance, there are reports that the Trump team is taking a more focused approach. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, an early Trump supporter and skilled debater, is reportedly involved in the debate preparations. 

Some Republicans are skeptical about how much ground Trump can make up at this stage, however. 

“Now it’s up to him,” said GOP strategist and Hill contributor Matt Mackowiak. “It’s like coaching versus playing. Coaches can prepare you and they can have the right play calls. But at the end of the day, the player on the field has to go do it. So far, Trump has fallen short. He really needs to win decisively on Sunday.” 

Numerous recent polls have shown the scale of the challenge Trump faces. On Wednesday, a new poll from Monmouth University showed him trailing Clinton by 2 percentage points in Ohio, which has been one of the most favorable battleground states for the GOP nominee.

Another new survey, from WRAL-TV and Survey USA, showed Trump trailing in North Carolina, also by 2 points. And a national poll from Reuters/IPSOS gave Clinton a 6-point edge. 

The data forecasting site FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 76.2 percent chance of prevailing in its “poll-only” forecast as of Wednesday evening, her highest rating by that measure since late August. 

But the polls of the race have swung wildly before.

Clinton has twice led the RealClearPolitics national polling average by more than 6 points — in mid-June and early August — only to have Trump winnow those leads down to virtually nothing.

Some Clinton critics maintain that she could yet be pushed off track by an external event, such as an unforced error or damaging disclosures from an organization such as WikiLeaks, which published embarrassing emails between Democratic National Committee staffers as the party’s convention began this summer in Philadelphia.

A WikiLeaks news conference earlier this week failed to live up the hype that surrounded it, however, casting doubt on whether the organization can follow through on its threats.

Republicans also warn that Trump and his supporters can’t depend on a lucky break. The nominee himself, they say, needs to wrest back the initiative from Clinton.

“Hope is not a strategy,” said Mackowiak. “More of the same is not going to change the trajectory of the race. He needs to demonstrate at this next debate that he is prepared to be president — and that he can force Hillary Clinton back on defense.”

There is a recent precedent for a debate turnaround. 

In 2012, President Obama gave a lifeless performance at his opening clash with GOP nominee Mitt Romney and fell sharply in the polls afterward. But Vice President Biden acquitted himself well against Romney’s running mate, future Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanCruz hires Trump campaign press aide as communications director Bottom line Ex-Trump chief of staff Priebus mulling Wisconsin governor bid MORE (Wis.), and Obama was much improved when he met Romney a second and third time.

Sunday’s debate will be in a town-hall format, but there is no consensus among insiders as to whether that helps or hinders Trump. 

Some backers suggest it will make it easier for Trump to feed off the energy of the crowd. Skeptics counter that televised town halls are technically challenging, in terms of tone and body language, and that a small, mostly quiet audience creates a very different atmosphere from the rambunctious rallies where Trump thrives.

But what if Trump surpasses expectations and reels in Clinton’s lead one more time?

“He would be the turnaround master of the decade if he pulls that off,” said Berkovitz.