Senate:

Sen. Patty MurrayPatricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayHouse passes bill to combat gender pay gap Schumer kicks into reelection mode Democrats target Trump methane rule with Congressional Review Act MORE (Wash.) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Murray has drawn a strong Republican challenger in Dino Rossi, and most general election polls have the race in a dead heat. 

Sen. Russ Feingold (Wis.) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Even though Republicans in the state have yet to emerge from their primary fight, this race has been in a dead heat since June. 

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Connecticut Senate (OPEN) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "LEAN DEMOCRATIC." Despite still fighting off negative stories from her time as head of World Wrestling Entertainment, Republican Linda McMahon has been steadily gaining on state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal since the beginning of the summer. The latest Rasmussen poll gives Blumenthal just a 7-point lead, while the most recent Quinnipiac poll puts Blumenthal up 10 points. With McMahon poised to spend upwards of $50 million on the race, this contest appears to be inching toward toss-up territory. 

Sen. Carte Goodwin (W.Va.) — "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC." One addition to our Senate rankings is the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.). Now that Rep. Shelley Moore CapitoShelley Wellons Moore CapitoGOP eyes new strategy to derail Biden infrastructure plan On The Money: Moderates' 0B infrastructure bill is a tough sell with Democrats | Justice Dept. sues Trump ally Roger Stone for unpaid taxes OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Trump official delayed releasing information on cancer-linked chemical in Illinois: watchdog | Advocacy groups say tech giants need to 'step it up' on sustainability |  GOP senator: Raising corporate taxes is a 'non-starter' MORE (R) has declined to make a run for the seat in this fall's special election, Democrats are likely to retain it. West Virginia Gov. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinBiden dispatches Cabinet members to sell infrastructure plan On The Money: Treasury creates hub to fight climate change | Manchin throws support behind union-backed PRO Act | Consumer bureau rolls out rule to bolster CDC eviction ban Miners union to back Biden on green energy if it retains jobs MORE is the Democratic nominee.

Indiana Senate (OPEN) — from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN REPUBLICAN." The race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D) increasingly looks like a Republican pick-up. Dan CoatsDaniel (Dan) Ray CoatsExperts see 'unprecedented' increase in hackers targeting electric grid Intel heads to resume worldwide threats hearing scrapped under Trump Lack of cyber funds in Biden infrastructure plan raises eyebrows MORE has led Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) by at least 15 points in every poll since June.


House:

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Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) — from "TOSS-UP" to "LEAN DEMOCRATIC." Minnick has taken to Twitter to highlight the National Republican Congressional Committee’s reluctance to buy TV ad time in his once-targeted district. After party-favorite Vaughn Ward lost the primary to Raul Labrador, Republicans seem to have abandoned their ambition of unseating the conservative Democrat.

Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) — from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Judging from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's attention to Edwards’s race, this incumbent isn’t a shoe-in for reelection. Republican Bill FloresWilliam (Bill) Hose FloresThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the UAE Embassy in Washington, DC - Calls mount to start transition as Biden readies Cabinet picks Hillicon Valley: House votes to condemn QAnon | Americans worried about foreign election interference | DHS confirms request to tap protester phones House approves measure condemning QAnon, but 17 Republicans vote against it MORE is expected to be well-funded, although his spotty voting record could get in the way. Given the heavily Republican nature of the district, this race is clearly in reach for Republicans. 


Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) — from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Pomeroy liked his chances of keeping his House seat more than taking on Gov. John HoevenJohn Henry HoevenThe Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - All US adults now eligible for COVID vaccines The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - All US adults can get vaccine; decision Friday on J&J vax Biden to hold second meeting with bipartisan lawmakers on infrastructure MORE (R) in the Senate race. But with the popular Republican at the top of the ticket this cycle, Pomeroy’s challenger, Rick Berg, is liking his odds. 


Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) — from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." As chairman of the House Budget Committee, Spratt is one of the most vulnerable to charges of out-of-control government spending. He’s calling challenger Mick Mulvaney “another Mark Sanford,” but it remains to be seen if that’s an effective line of attack. 


Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." The conservative Democratic shunned a White House endorsement in the primary because he likely knew it wouldn’t help him in his tough general election race against Republican Steve Southerland. Boyd is already out with a website and TV ad hitting Southerland for wanting to repeal the 17th Amendment — a sign he’s ready for and expecting a fight. 

Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii) — "TOSS-UP." After winning a special election this spring, Djou is already fighting for his political life this November. Djou was helped by an intra-party Democratic rift earlier this year, but the party is united around Colleen Hanabusa (D) for the fall, which will mean a close fight in this Democratic district. 

Wisconsin House (OPEN) — "TOSS-UP." Another addition to our House rankings is the seat left open by the retiring Rep. David Obey. State Sen. Julie Lassa (D) and Sarah Palin-backed Republican Sean DuffySean DuffyLobbying world CNN's Ana Navarro to host Biden roundtable on making 'Trump a one-term president' Bottom line MORE are in a tight race that's already attracting the attention of third-party groups.  

Michigan House (OPEN) — "TOSS-UP." Here's another Democrat-held open seat up for grabs this fall, being vacated by Rep. Bart Stupak. After a close Republican primary, state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) got a bit of a head start against Republican Dan BenishekDaniel (Dan) Joseph BenishekRepublican groups launch final ad blitz in key House battlegrounds Tea Party class reassesses record Michigan Republican to retire MORE. But given the environment in-state and GOP boasting internal numbers that have Benishek up big, this race is shaping up as another prime pick-up opportunity for Republicans. 

Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) — from "LEAN DEMOCRATIC" to "TOSS-UP." Republican challenger Adam Kinzinger recently picked up the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Some real spending on Kinzinger's behalf could help push this race his way. 

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to "LEAN DEMOCRATIC." Longtime incumbent Skelton is downgraded slightly in our new rankings. The Democrat is facing the toughest challenge he has seen in years from Republican Vicky Hartzler, and the national party is trumpeting the race as a sign that an increasing number of Democratic-held seats are now in play this fall. 

Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) — "LEAN DEMOCRATIC." After easily winning a special election in May to fill the seat of the late Rep. John Murtha (D), Critz appears to be a solid bet to beat back a second challenge from Republican Tim Burns in November.