Tonight marks the final night of primaries this cycle, with voters heading to the polls in Rhode Island, New York, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Here are three things to watch for in tonight’s primaries.

1. Success at the margins: Many of tonight’s contests are already foregone conclusions, but the margins still matter. Scott Brown’s campaign indicated as much when it attempted to set expectations low — below 40 percent — in a pre-primary memo. Brown, Massachusetts Attorney General and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Martha Coakley and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) are expected to win their party’s nominations tonight, but their opponents will be watching to see how many base voters defect as a potential sign of weakness in the general election.

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2. Will Rep. John Tierney survive? Tierney is the last House incumbent this cycle at real risk of defeat, but his loss to primary challenger Seth Moulton could turn out to be a boon for Democrats, some of whom believe Moulton would be a stronger general election candidate than Tierney. Local Democrats note that it’s telling national Democrats and Democratic groups have done nothing to prop up Tierney in the final stretch of his campaign, which they’ve read as an implicit acknowledgment they’d be happy with either Democrat as their nominee.

3. Will the rising star or the safe bet take on Rep. Annie Kuster this fall? The Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 2nd District has grown increasingly nasty as rising GOP star Marilinda Garcia battles former state Sen. Gary Lambert for the opportunity to take on one of Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents this cycle. Garcia has emerged as the front-runner in the final weeks of the race and sought to moderate her image, but Republicans have privately expressed concerns that some of her more conservative positions could cause them headaches in the general if she wins the nomination.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN 

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Democrat Chad Taylor is heading to the Kansas Supreme Court as he looks to get his name removed from the ballot and help independent candidate Greg Orman in his race against Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsEleven GOP senators sign open letter backing Sessions's comeback bid Pressure builds on Pompeo as impeachment inquiry charges ahead GOP lawmakers fear Trump becoming too consumed by impeachment fight MORE (R-Kan.).

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) faced calls from fellow Republican Louisiana Senate candidate Rob Maness and Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidHarry Reid: Early voting states Iowa, New Hampshire 'not representative of the country anymore' The Memo: Democrats confront prospect of long primary Bottom Line MORE (D-Nev.) to apologize for saying Reid “runs the Senate like a plantation.” But Cassidy stood by his comments, saying later he was remarking on Reid’s “dictatorial” style and that any other interpretation of his remarks was creating "a false controversy."

CO-SEN (UDALL): Sen. Mark UdallMark Emery UdallDemocrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump Poll: Trump trails three Democrats by 10 points in Colorado The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and the new Israel-'squad' controversy MORE (D-Colo.) apologized for suggesting two slain American journalists would support a more cautious approach to tackling the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria during a debate this weekend.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainConservative group cuts ties with Michelle Malkin Democratic debate at Tyler Perry's could miss the mark with black voters Donald Trump's 2020 election economic gamble MORE (R-Ariz.) hammered Democratic Senate candidate Bruce BraleyBruce Lowell Braley2020 caucuses pose biggest challenge yet for Iowa's top pollster OPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward MORE and his “special interest allies” over a mailer issued by environmental group NextGen Climate declaring that while “American troops have spent years fighting terrorists overseas ... politicians like Joni Ernst are undercutting that battle here at home.” Ernst is a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard, and McCain called the mailer “beyond offensive.”


MN-SEN (FRANKEN): Republican Senate candidate Mike McFadden encouraged Congress to act on immigration reform and said he supports a pathway to citizenship for immigrants here illegally, but wants to secure the border first. He wouldn’t say whether he supports the Senate’s reform bill.

NRSC: Veteran GOP strategist Ron Bonjean has signed on as spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee's independent expenditure arm.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

DNC: The Democratic National Committee is launching a new campaign to get supporters to pledge to vote in the midterm elections, an effort to mitigate the party’s expected drop-off in turnout this fall.

OUTSIDE GROUPS: American Action Network and the Congressional Leadership Fund announced they’ll spend $8.1 million on ads targeting Democratic Reps. Tim BishopTimothy (Tim) Howard BishopDem candidate 'struck by the parallels' between Trump's rise and Hitler's Dems separated by 29 votes in NY House primary Flint residents hire first K Street firm MORE (N.Y.), Ann KirkpatrickAnn KirkpatrickSwing-seat Democrats oppose impeachment, handing Pelosi leverage McSally gets new primary challenger Two Democrats vow to press forward on Trump impeachment MORE (Ariz.), Joe GarciaJose (Joe) Antonio GarciaOvernight Defense: Biden honors McCain at Phoenix memorial service | US considers sending captured ISIS fighters to Gitmo and Iraq | Senators press Trump on ending Yemen civil war Biden pays tribute to McCain at emotional memorial service Mueller indictments: Congressional candidate asked Russian operatives for info on opponent MORE (Fla.), Ron BarberRonald (Ron) Sylvester BarberKavanaugh nomination a make or break moment to repeal Citizens United Latina Leaders to Watch 2018 Principles and actions mean more than Jeff Flake’s words MORE (Ariz.), Ami BeraAmerish (Ami) Babulal BeraImproving maternal health with data and care coordination One year out, moderate Dems on track to keep the House Democrat unveils bill capping number of ambassadors who are political appointees MORE (Calif.), Rick Nolan (Minn.), Pete GallegoPete Pena GallegoGOP candidate scores upset win in Texas state Senate runoff Koch group launches digital ads in tight Texas House race Iraq War vet wins Texas Dem runoff MORE (Texas) and Scott Peters (Calif.) and in Virginia’s open 10th District.

 

AD WATCH

AZ-2, GA-12, IL-12, MN-7, MN-8, NY-1, WV-3, FL-2, IA-3: The National Republican Congressional Committee launched a series of ads Tuesday targeting Democratic Reps. Ron Barber (Ariz.), John BarrowJohn Jenkins BarrowRepublican wins Georgia secretary of state runoff to replace Kemp The most important runoff election is one you probably never heard of Our democracy can’t afford to cut legal aid services from the budget MORE (Ga.), William Enyart (Ill.), Collin Peterson (Minn.), Rick Nolan (Minn.), Tim Bishop (N.Y.) and Nick RahallNick Joe RahallWe shouldn't allow politics to impede disaster relief Break the cycle of partisanship with infant, child health care programs Clinton mulls role in 2018 midterms MORE (W.Va.). Two other spots attack Gwen Graham (D), who's running against Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.), and former Iowa state Sen. Staci Appel (D), who's running for retiring Rep. Tom Latham's (R-Iowa) seat.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Crossroads GPS charges that during his time as mayor of Anchorage, Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lobbying world MORE (D-Alaska) raised taxes and increased spending while ultimately leaving the city in debt.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Businessman David Perdue (R) hits former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) as “too liberal” and touts his business record in a new spot.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee accuses Nunn of supporting “amnesty” for backing comprehensive immigration reform in another ad.

MI-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) touts his military record in a new bio spot.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ties Republican Terri Lynn Land to the billionaire Koch brothers, Charles and David, and their “dirty profits,” pointing to pollution caused by a Detroit-area petroleum coke plant owned by them.

MT-SEN (OPEN): Workers at a local timber mill tout Rep. Steve Daines’s (R-Mont.) ability to protect their business and create jobs.

ME-SEN (COLLINS): American Unity PAC, a pro-gay-rights GOP group, released an ad praising Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret Collins2020 Republicans accuse Schumer of snubbing legislation Key Republicans say Biden can break Washington gridlock Feehery: Pivoting to infrastructure could help heal post-impeachment wounds MORE (R). 

AZ-1 (KIRKPATRICK): Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) implicitly answered a National Republican Congressional Committee attack ad that framed her as a pair of legs and heels in her newest ad, which highlights her cowboy boots and work holding lawmakers accountable.

CO-SEN (UDALL): Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) accuses Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerFeehery: Pivoting to infrastructure could help heal post-impeachment wounds Tariffs threaten 1.5M jobs: Study This week: House kicks off public phase of impeachment inquiry MORE (R) of hurting Colorado with his votes that contributed to the recent government shutdown.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Sen. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenProgressive group to spend as much as M to turn out young voters On The Money: US paid record .1B in tariffs in September | Dems ramp up oversight of 'opportunity zones' | Judge hints at letting House lawsuit over Trump tax returns proceed Overnight Energy: EPA watchdog slams agency chief after deputy fails to cooperate in probe | Justices wrestle with reach of Clean Water Act | Bipartisan Senate climate caucus grows MORE (D-N.H.) looks toward the general election with a pair of contrast ads, one featuring local New Hampshirites touting her work for the state and the other charging Republican Scott Brown of supporting oil companies and Wall Street at the expense of voters.

OR-SEN (MERKLEY): Republican Monica Wehby touts her support for gay marriage.

 

POLL POSITION

MI-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) leads former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) 43 percent to 36 percent in a new automated survey from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganDemocrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Better Medicare Alliance - Dems shift strategy on impeachment vote Former North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan dies at 66 MORE (D-N.C.) leads North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) 48 percent to 45 percent in a new internal poll from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Tillis’s campaign released a poll yesterday showing a tied race.

AZ-1 (KIRKPATRICK): An internal survey for GOP state Speaker Andy Tobin conducted by the Tarrance Group shows him ahead of Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent. 

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

CLINTON: A new Farleigh Dickinson University poll shows New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) remains the only competitive potential Republican contender in 2016 against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonDemocrats ask judge for quick ruling on McGahn subpoena Hillary Clinton: 'Every day Stephen Miller remains in the White House is an emergency' The Memo: Centrists change tone of Democratic race MORE among New Jersey voters. Clinton still leads, taking 45 percent support to Christie’s 42 percent support, but that’s a decline in support for her from a Quinnipiac poll conducted in August that gave Clinton 50 percent to Christie’s 42 percent.

PATRICK: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) said Clinton is “fantastic” but that “voters want competition” when asked about her during a campaign stop to help former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (D).

KASICH: Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) says he hasn’t started seriously considering a presidential run, though he left the door wide open in an interview with the Columbus Post-Dispatch.

“I have never really sat down with my great friends, with my close friends that I’ve known for 30 years, and said, ‘What do you think?’ Until you do that, you can’t even think about it, because I think most of ’em would probably say no,” he said. “You know, I tried to run for president once. ... It was really brutal.”

He also says he’s thinking about writing a book after former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) encouraged him.

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Has he been taking lessons from Donald Sterling? Where did he get this from?” —Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), calling for Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) to apologize after he said in an interview the Senate majority leader “runs the Senate like a plantation”