GOP bullish with two weeks to go

Two weeks from Election Day, GOP hopes of capturing congressional control continue to rise.

"We are going to win the Senate. I feel very good about that," National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Collins said last week. 

His optimism is well-founded: The GOP needs to net six seats to take the upper chamber, and positive polls in Colorado, Arkansas, Alaska and other battleground states have Republicans buoyant. House Republicans are also aiming for historic gains to pad their majority. 

Meanwhile, Democrats privately fret that the battle for Congress might be slipping away, as President Obama drags his party down. 

Their hopes of hanging on rest in their sophisticated ground game. Democrats have spent more than $60 million on field efforts, and strategists in both parties say that could net them a point or two on Election Day. 

“There are lots of close races across the country, but Democrats are running better campaigns with better candidates, and we're confident that at the end of the day, we're going to hold the majority,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Justin Barasky.

Favorable playing field pays off

Republicans started off the cycle with a welcoming map — Democrats are defending seven seats in states 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney won. And for them, the hits kept coming: President Obama’s approval rating is hovering around 40 percent, and the administration’s handling of recent crises continues to take their toll. 

Still, Obama keeps bear-hugging them: His comments Monday that red-state Democrats “are all folks who vote with me” give Republicans additional fodder to tie them to the president, following his recent statement that his agenda “is on the ballot this year.”

Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up a pair of open red-state seats in Montana and West Virginia, and are feeling increasingly confident about taking out Sens. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska Senate race sees cash surge in final stretch Alaska group backing independent candidate appears linked to Democrats Sullivan wins Alaska Senate GOP primary MORE (D-Alaska), Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorCotton glides to reelection in Arkansas Live updates: Democrats fight to take control of the Senate Lobbying world MORE (D-Ark.) and Mary LandrieuMary Loretta LandrieuCassidy wins reelection in Louisiana Bottom line A decade of making a difference: Senate Caucus on Foster Youth MORE (D-La.), all of whom have trailed their Republican opponents in recent public polling.

The DSCC bought airtime for a runoff in Louisiana on Monday, a sign they’re expecting the battle between Landrieu and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) to extend into December after an all-party primary. Cassidy has led in head-to-head polling, though runoffs are unpredictable.

Democrats privately admit that Begich and Pryor are in tough spots, but their polling shows better numbers than public surveys. Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll, adding an additional level of uncertainty into the race. 

Purple State Pickups 

Republicans also feel increasingly confident they can pull off upsets in the swing states of Colorado and Iowa, though Democrats argue their ground game will make the difference. 

Sen. Mark UdallMark Emery UdallHickenlooper ousts Gardner in Colorado, handing Democrats vital pickup Live updates: Democrats fight to take control of the Senate The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (D-Colo.) has trailed Rep. Cory GardnerCory GardnerMark Kelly to be sworn in as senator on Wednesday Hillicon Valley: Trump fires top federal cybersecurity official, GOP senators push back | Apple to pay 3 million to resolve fight over batteries | Los Angeles Police ban use of third-party facial recognition software Senate passes bill to secure internet-connected devices against cyber vulnerabilities MORE (R-Colo.) in recent public surveys. Democrats, however, point out that polls have underestimated their support by wide margins the past two cycles, and their internal polling shows Udall with a slim advantage. 

Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) holds slight lead over Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce Lowell BraleyThe Memo: Trump attacks on Harris risk backfiring 2020 caucuses pose biggest challenge yet for Iowa's top pollster OPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP MORE (D-Iowa) in most recent polls too, though both sides acknowledge it’s still a toss-up.  

Meanwhile, two unexpected headaches for the GOP don't look as severe anymore.

Long considered a given GOP pickup, both sides have suddenly begun spending in South Dakota. Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) hit unexpected turbulence against former Sen. Larry Pressler (I) and Democrat Rick Weiland, though Rounds still has a lead in the polls. 

Republicans say Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsTrump's controversial Fed nominee stalled after Senate setback Business groups scramble to forge ties amid race for House Agriculture chair Republicans hold on to competitive Kansas House seat MORE (R-Kan.) has weathered a rough few months and now has the momentum against independent candidate and businessman Greg Orman, though the two remain tied.

Hopes of Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) knocking off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump signs one-week funding bill to avoid shutdown Congress 'close' to massive government funding deal Overnight Health Care: White House presses FDA chief over COVID-19 vaccine | Committees reach bipartisan deal to protect patients from surprise medical bills | Sanders, Hawley vow fight next week over stimulus checks MORE (R-Ky.) now look dashed, too, most strategists privately admit. 

New hope for Dems?

There are some bright spots for Democrats, though. 

Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) has pulled even with businessman David Perdue after effectively seizing on the Republican’s outsourcing past.  

Democrats feel increasingly optimistic that Nunn might be able to declare outright victory in November. If neither candidate reaches 50 percent and the race heads to a January runoff, Republicans would be favored, but they don’t want to face that scenario. 

“We still believe we'll win in Georgia, but Michelle Nunn has proven to be a formidable candidate, no question about it,” one national GOP strategist told The Hill.

Sen. Kay HaganKay Ruthven Hagan10 under-the-radar races to watch in November The Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic Unity Taskforce unveils party platform recommendations Democrats awash with cash in battle for Senate MORE (D-N.C.) has also held a small but consistent lead in most recent public polling, though she’s been on the defensive this week over questions about missed committee hearings and a flip-flop on an Ebola travel ban. Thanks to increased GOP spending on the airwaves, Republicans believe the race is finally tightening. 

GOP eyes 245 in House 

On the House side, strategists in both parties expect the GOP to gain seats. The map has shifted toward Republicans in recent days, and gains of between 6 and 12 seats looks possible.

GOP outside groups have stepped up their spending on new targets. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — frustrated labor and green groups have focused on the Senate — were forced to pull resources from a number of offensive opportunities, including two formerly top targets, Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) and retiring Rep. Frank WolfFrank Rudolph WolfBottom line Africa's gathering storm DOJ opinion will help protect kids from dangers of online gambling MORE’s (R-Va.) district, in order to protect their incumbents.

“Democrats are having to abandon several offensive races to shore up Democrat incumbents, while we are on offense across the country in Obama districts,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Andrea Bozek.

Republicans are near-locks to pick up open seats in Utah, North Carolina and upstate New York, while Democrats will likely win retiring Rep. Gary Miller’s (R-Calif.) seat.

The GOP is also targeting roughly a dozen Democratic incumbents, feeling the most bullish against Reps. Ann KirkpatrickAnn KirkpatrickDemocrat O'Halleran wins reelection in Arizona House race Arizona Rep. Tom O'Halleran wins Democratic primary Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick wins Democratic primary MORE (D-Ariz.) and William Enyart (D-Ill.). Both sides say Reps. Ami BeraAmerish (Ami) Babulal BeraHillicon Valley: Judge's ruling creates fresh hurdle for TikTok | House passes bills to secure energy sector against cyberattacks | Biden campaign urges Facebook to remove Trump posts spreading 'falsehoods' House passes bills to secure energy sector against cyberattacks The Hill's Coronavirus Report: iBIO Chairman and CEO Thomas Isett says developing a safe vaccine is paramount; US surpasses 150,000 coronavirus deaths with roughy one death per minute MORE (D-Calif.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) are in toss-up races, while Democrats think Reps. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Julia BrownleyJulia Andrews BrownleyVoters elected a record number of Black women to Congress this year — none were Republican House Democrats eyeing much broader Phase 3 stimulus Assistant House Speaker self-quarantines out of 'abundance of caution' MORE (D-Calif.), Rick Nolan (D-Minn.), Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), Tim BishopTimothy (Tim) Howard BishopDem candidate 'struck by the parallels' between Trump's rise and Hitler's Dems separated by 29 votes in NY House primary Flint residents hire first K Street firm MORE (D-N.Y.), Pete GallegoPete Pena GallegoER doctor chosen to lead Hispanic Caucus 4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch GOP candidate scores upset win in Texas state Senate runoff MORE (D-Texas) and Nick RahallNick Joe RahallWe shouldn't allow politics to impede disaster relief Break the cycle of partisanship with infant, child health care programs Clinton mulls role in 2018 midterms MORE (D-W.Va.) are slightly more likely than not to hold on to their seats.

“As Republican third-party groups pour millions into House races, Democrats’ early spending is keeping key races competitive and the DCCC is doubling down in the most competitive races in the country for the final stretch. We are going toe-to-toe with Republican third-party groups to protect our incumbents in a tough, unpredictable environment,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Emily Bittner.

Democrats have opportunities of their own and feel good about knocking off a trio of Republicans with self-inflicted wounds running — Reps. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.), Lee Terry (R-Neb.) and Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.). Democrats are also bullish about winning open seats held by retiring Reps. Tom Latham (R-Iowa) and Tim GriffinJohn (Tim) Timothy GriffinFlynn discloses lobbying that may have helped Turkey Tea Party class reassesses record Huckabee's daughter to run '16 campaign MORE (R-Ark.).