Poll: Ernst leads Braley in Iowa
© Cameron Joseph

Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce Lowell BraleyOPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward Trump: Ernst wanted 'more seasoning' before entertaining VP offer MORE (D) by four percentage points in a new poll from Quinnipiac University, one of her larger leads in recent polling.

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Ernst leads Braley by 49 to 45 percent in the live-caller poll, slightly outside the survey's margin of error, plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Republican has had an edge in most recent polling in one of the handful of races that will determine Senate control, though a Loras College survey released on Tuesday found Braley up by 45 to 44 percent.

Republicans also have some favorable early voting numbers to point to. They narrowly trail Democrats in early votes in the state, a big reversal from Democrats' historic edge on that front. Democrats argue that GOP voters are just shifting to early votes while they're turning out dropoff voters, but it's unclear whether or not that's true.