Whatever outcome you want to see on Nov. 4, there's a poll for that.

Sen. Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate gears up for battle over witnesses in impeachment trial McConnell: I doubt any GOP senator will vote to impeach Trump McConnell says he'll be in 'total coordination' with White House on impeachment trial strategy MORE (R-Ky.) up big over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes? A poll out Thursday from Crossroads GPS gives him a 7-point lead.

Grimes tied with McConnell? Her own pollster suggested that's what their internals show.

Depending on which of the three polls released Thursday you're reading, Sen. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenOvernight Health Care — Presented by That's Medicaid — House passes sweeping Pelosi bill to lower drug prices | Senate confirms Trump FDA pick | Trump officials approve Medicaid work requirements in South Carolina Senate confirms Trump's nominee to lead FDA Senate panel advances Turkey sanctions bill despite Trump objections MORE (D-N.H.) could be in a dead heat with Republican Scott Brown, down 4 points or up 8 points.

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Sen. Mark UdallMark Emery UdallDemocrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump Poll: Trump trails three Democrats by 10 points in Colorado The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and the new Israel-'squad' controversy MORE (D-Colo.) is anywhere from down 8 points to up 1 point to tied with Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerSenate gears up for battle over witnesses in impeachment trial Democrats spend big to put Senate in play Republicans consider skipping witnesses in Trump impeachment trial MORE (R), according to the half-dozen polls released over the past week.

The wild swings in public polling underscore both how unpredictable this midterm cycle is and how unreliable most polls are. And the pollsters emphasize that even the best, most careful prognosticators are in for some surprises on Election Night.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

GA-SEN (OPEN): Georgia's tight Senate race could be headed for the courtroom after voters head to the ballot box following a judge’s decision this week that will likely increase the number of provisional ballot cast and could create Election Day chaos.

Dollar General recalled Chinese-made goods because of lead paint during the time David Perdue (R) was CEO.

Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) stumped with former Atlanta Hawks star Dikembe Motumbu on Thursday and will campaign with former President Clinton on Friday.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsLankford to be named next Senate Ethics chairman The Hill's Morning Report - Intel panel readies to hand off impeachment baton The job no GOP senator wants: 'I'd rather have a root canal' MORE’s (R-Kan.) former primary challenger, radiologist Milton Wolf (R), endorsed him for reelection. He called for skeptics to put aside the nasty primary fight because Kansas could be the deciding state for control of the Senate, and pledged to “hold [Roberts’s] feet to the fire” if the senator is reelected.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Joni Ernst on Thursday responded to Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden hires Clinton, O'Rourke alum as campaign's digital director Trump neck and neck with top 2020 Democrats in Wisconsin: poll Clinton tweets impeachment website, encourages voters to 'see the evidence for themselves' MORE's criticism of the Iowa Republican Senate nominee for canceling a newspaper editorial board interview, saying it is less important to meet with a "room full of editors."

And a day earlier, Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainJeffries blasts Trump for attack on Thunberg at impeachment hearing Live coverage: House panel debates articles of impeachment Budowsky: Would John McCain back impeachment? MORE (R-Ariz.) said he wants Ernst to serve on the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee, citing her service in the Army National Guard.

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): The Kentucky Republican Party is reminding voters of Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes's ties to President Obama with a holographic mailer that shows her turning into him. 

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Former President Clinton is heading back to North Carolina to rally with Sen. Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganGOP braces for Democratic spending onslaught in battle for Senate Democrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Better Medicare Alliance - Dems shift strategy on impeachment vote MORE, as the vulnerable Democratic incumbent looks to hang on to her seat. 

MT-SEN (OPEN): The National Republican Senatorial Committee is the source of the leak that brought down Sen. John Walsh (D-Mont.), its director said at an event on Thursday.

DEMOCRATS: The man who oversaw the field operation for President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign says Democrats have no better than a 50-50 shot at retaining the Senate when voters head to the polls next month. 

Democrats have lost their grip on Hispanic voters heading into Election Day — and could lose the Senate because of them.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

AZ-9 (SINEMA): The Arizona Democratic Party is sending mailers offering information on libertarian Powell Gammill, a move Republican Wendy Rogers's campaign says is intended to siphon votes away from her and help boost Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

MI-6 (UPTON): Supporters and opponents of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) are spending big in the final days before the election, turning a once-ignored race into a possible upset.

NY-11 (GRIMM): The Staten Island Advance is begrudgingly endorsing embattled Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) for reelection, offering him faint praise in his battle with former New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia (D). 

CA-17 (HONDA): First lady Michelle ObamaMichelle LeVaughn Robinson ObamaPanel: Andrew Yang beats Joe Biden in ad dollars, Michelle Obama on GWB 'our values are the same' Michelle Obama, Ellen DeGeneres surprise DC elementary school with new computer lab, 0K donation Hillary Clinton documentary to premiere at Sundance MORE is going to bat for Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) in his race against former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna — a fellow Democrat — in one of the most expensive House races in the country. 

MN-7 (PETERSON): Twelve-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) is one of the few remaining centrist Blue Dogs in Congress. Republicans are hoping to change that, and believe legally blind state Sen. Torrey Westrom (R) is the candidate to pull off the upset.

CA-52 (PETERS): California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) endorsed Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) on Thursday.

CO-6 (COFFMAN): Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) and Democrat Andrew Romanoff (D) will square off in a Spanish-language debate tonight.

 

AD WATCH

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): A new radio ad bashing Kansas independent Greg Orman as a pawn of the Democrats re-imagines the race through the lens of Netflix’s “House of Cards.”

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) launched two new ads, one featuring Kansas State University coach Bill Snyder touting the senator as a “good friend” and an “honest individual” and another radio ad highlighting the potential for Roberts to take over the Agriculture Committee chairmanship if the GOP takes back the Senate.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Former Alaska Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) promises to “stand up to Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaDemocrats' self-inflicted diversity vulnerability Gaetz: We didn't impeach Obama even though 'a lot of constituents' think he abused his power Live coverage: House panel debates articles of impeachment MORE and federal overreach” in his closing ad.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) is closing out the campaign with a positive spot focused on “working together” across the aisle.

Businessman David Perdue (R) ties Nunn to Obama in his latest spot.

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Rep. Tom CottonThomas (Tom) Bryant CottonTikTok chief cancels Capitol Hill meetings, inflaming tensions Lawsuits pose new challenge for TikTok TikTok's leader to meet with lawmakers next week MORE (R-Ark.) touts his military background and says “both parties put off hard decisions” in a late ad.

RNC: The Republican National Committee has a new video putting a spin on a DirecTV commercial to argue against ObamaCare. 

NV-4 (HORSFORD): President Obama endorses Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) in a new radio ad from Horsford's campaign.

GA-12 (BARROW): The American Future Fund calls Rep. John BarrowJohn Jenkins BarrowRepublican wins Georgia secretary of state runoff to replace Kemp The most important runoff election is one you probably never heard of Our democracy can’t afford to cut legal aid services from the budget MORE (D-Ga.) an “Obama-Pelosi lapdog” in a new spot.

 

POLL POSITION

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes's pollster suggested Thursday his candidate is tied with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in her internal polls. 

CO-SEN (UDALL): The Denver Post’s final poll of the cycle shows Republican Cory Gardner leading Sen. Mark Udall 46 percent to 44 percent. 

Another poll, conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for pro-Udall League of Conservation Voters, shows the two both tied at 48 percent support.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): A poll from the GOP-leaning American Research Group shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Republican Scott Brown tied, each taking 49 percent support.

A poll from GOP firm Vox Populi gives Brown a slight lead, taking 49 percent to Shaheen’s 45 percent among likely voters.

And a WMUR Granite State Poll gives Shaheen a lead, taking 50 percent support to Brown’s 42 percent support.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) leads state Speaker Thom Tillis in a new Elon University poll by a margin of 45 percent to 41 percent. 

She’s up 47 percent to 46 percent in a League of Conservation Voters poll conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, but Tillis leads 48 percent to 43 percent in a new poll from GOP firm Vox Populi.

AK-SEN (PRYOR): Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) leads Sen. Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorTom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation MORE (D-Ark.) 49 percent to 36 percent in a poll from University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.

CA-31 (OPEN): Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) leads Republican Paul Chabot 47 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for the League of Conservation Voters.

LA-5 (MCALLISTER): Physician Ralph Abraham (R) takes 25 percent support in the latest independentsurvey of the race, while Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (D) draws 18 percent and Rep. Vance McAllister (R-La.) takes 16 percent support.

NJ-5 (GARRETT): Rep. Scott GarrettErnest (Scott) Scott GarrettBiz groups take victory lap on Ex-Im Bank Export-Import Bank back to full strength after Senate confirmations Manufacturers support Reed to helm Ex-Im Bank MORE (R) takes 53 percent support to Democrat Roy Cho’s 42 percent in the latest Monmouth University poll.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS 

BUSH/CLINTON: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) took a swipe at former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s (D) recent comments, paraphrasing them as “don’t let them tell you that businesses create jobs.” 

“The problem in America these days is that not enough jobs are being created. They are created by businesses,” Bush fired back in a Colorado campaign stop.

RYAN: Rep. Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanJeffries blasts Trump for attack on Thunberg at impeachment hearing Live coverage: House panel debates articles of impeachment House Ethics Committee informs Duncan Hunter he can no longer vote after guilty plea MORE (R-Wis.) indicated in an interview published Thursday that he is open to a presidential run, saying he does not see himself as a House "lifer." 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

"Remember Domino's Pizza? They admitted, 'Hey, our pizza crust sucks.' The Republican Party brand sucks and so people don’t want to be a Republican and for 80 years, African-Americans have had nothing to do with Republicans.” — Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulPentagon to take bigger role in vetting foreign students after Pensacola shooting Overnight Defense: House passes compromise defense bill | Turkey sanctions advance in Senate over Trump objections | Top general says military won't be 'raping, burning and pillaging' after Trump pardons Rand Paul: 'We need to re-examine' US-Saudi relationship after Florida shooting MORE (R-Ky.)