Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) is 10 points behind his primary opponent, according to a new nonpartisan poll, making it highly unlikely he'll win Tuesday's contest.
Lugar trails Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) 48 percent to 38, according to a poll released Friday from Howey Politics Indiana and DePauw University. That is Mourdock's largest lead in any poll conducted of the race, including those by groups backing him.
This is the latest — and biggest — bad sign for the six-term incumbent: The poll is considered the most accurate in the state. Lugar already has seen a major outside group pull funding from his campaign, another sign that even allies of Lugar don't think he can be saved at this point.
In their previous poll, conducted in late March, Lugar held a seven-point edge. Since then, outside groups have spent heavily on television for both candidates — and the attacks on Lugar seem to be sticking better.
The live-caller poll of 700 likely Republican primary voters was conducted on April 30 and May 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.