The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll gives Murphy 37 percent support over McMahon's 33 percent, though that's a statistically insignificant lead, considering the margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

ADVERTISEMENT

And it reveals that both candidates have room to grow — and that they'll be fighting for the same subset of Connecticut voters. A full 48 percent of unaffiliated voters still have not decided their vote, so both McMahon and Murphy will have to toe a moderate line to win them over.

Murphy leads among both men and women, but McMahon lags among women by only three percentage points -- a stark difference from her 20-point deficit with female voters on Election Day in 2010. That seems to indicate her early efforts to shore up support among that demographic -- including women-centric business roundtables and meet-and-greets -- may be paying off.

The poll indicates, too, that Murphy could have more work to do shoring up the Democratic base than McMahon has to do with Republicans: while only 17 percent of Republicans are undecided, 27 percent of Democrats haven't picked a candidate yet.

The poll was conducted among 517 voters from Sept. 11-16.

--This piece was corrected to reflect the fact that Rep. Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphyOvernight Health Care: Trump takes criticism of Fauci to a new level | GOP Health Committee chairman defends Fauci | Birx confronted Pence about Atlas Senate Democrats call for ramped up Capitol coronavirus testing Senate Democrats seek to alleviate public concern about some results not being available on election night MORE leads among both men and women.