GOP senators lead in key swing states
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Three vulnerable Republican senators hold significant leads over their Democratic challengers, a new Quinnipiac University poll found.


In Florida, Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioTurkey says soldier killed despite cease-fire in Syria White House staggers after tumultuous 48 hours Erdoğan got the best of Trump, experts warn MORE leads Rep. Patrick Murphy, the leading Democratic candidate, 50 to 37 percent. Rubio also holds a 12-point lead over Rep. Alan GraysonAlan Mark GraysonFlorida's Darren Soto fends off Dem challenge from Alan Grayson Live results: Arizona and Florida hold primaries The Hill's Morning Report: Frustration mounts as Republicans blow up tax message MORE, another Democrat vying for the seat, outpacing Grayson 50 to 38 percent.

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) also holds a double-digit lead against his Democratic opponent, Katie McGinty, leading her 49 to 39 percent.

And in Ohio, Sen. Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanOvernight Defense — Presented by Boeing — Pence says Turkey agrees to ceasefire | Senators vow to move forward with Turkey sanctions | Mulvaney walks back comments tying Ukraine aid to 2016 probe On The Money: Senate fails to override Trump veto over border emergency | Trump resort to host G-7 next year | Senators to push Turkey sanctions despite ceasefire | McConnell tees up funding votes Senate fails to override Trump veto over emergency declaration MORE is up 7 points over former Gov. Ted Strickland, 47 to 40 percent.

The numbers seem to push back against those who say that presumptive GOP nominee Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump says he doesn't want NYT in the White House Veterans group backs lawsuits to halt Trump's use of military funding for border wall Schiff punches back after GOP censure resolution fails MORE is imperiling vulnerable down-ballot Republicans with his divisive rhetoric and campaign style. 

"Many talking heads have suggested that with Donald Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, Republican Senate candidates might suffer," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. 

"But at least in these three key states, the Republican Senate candidates are running ahead of Trump and don't seem to be hurt by their shared party label." 

In each of the Senate races, the GOP candidates lag among minority voters, though all perform significantly better than Trump. 

Rubio and Toomey are also outpacing their party's presumptive nominee among female voters, with Portman being the only incumbent trailing in the demographic, falling behind Strickland, 46 to 41 percent.

When Quinnipiac released a survey on Wednesday showing Trump up by 3 points over Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSanders: 'Outrageous' to suggest Gabbard 'is a foreign asset' Clinton attacks on Gabbard become flashpoint in presidential race Saagar Enjeti: Clinton remarks on Gabbard 'shows just how deep the rot in our system goes' MORE in Florida after a double-digit surge in less than a month, some strategists publicly questioned the poll’s reliability.

“There is no reason for Trump to have an 11-point swing in Florida in a month. No reason whatsoever, so I would really consider the Quinnipiac poll an outlier and would be very hesitant to seriously analyze it,” GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Hill on Wednesday.