FiveThirtyEight says Dems have 75 percent chance of winning House
© Greg Nash

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.


The website goes on to project the final tally will be 230 House seats for Democrats and 205 for Republicans. Democrats currently hold 193 seats to Republicans' 236 seats, in addition to six vacancies. FiveThirtyEight plans to update the estimates daily.

Other election trackers are also seeing favorable signs for Democrats three months before the midterms, raising the left's hopes for a blue wave. The Cook Political Report earlier this week moved four more GOP-held seats to the toss-up category.

A CNN poll released Wednesday also found that Democrats hold an 11-point advantage over Republicans on a generic House ballot.

Democrats have won or performed strongly in a number of special elections and in state races in areas where President TrumpDonald TrumpGaetz was denied meeting with Trump: CNN Federal Reserve chair: Economy would have been 'so much worse' without COVID-19 relief bills Police in California city declare unlawful assembly amid 'white lives matter' protest MORE won in 2016.

In last week's special election in Ohio, the GOP candidate holds a razor-thin lead over a Democratic challenger in a district seen as a Republican stronghold.

Despite the polls, though, Trump is predicting a red wave, touting the country's strong economy and the success of candidates he has backed in Republican primaries.