As you monitor the election results tonight, keep an eye here, on The Hill's live blog of results and goings-on in the special election in New York's 23rd district. We will dissect the returns as the come in, looking for clues about how the race compares to past years.
Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.
12:20 a.m. AP has also called it for Owens. This race is over.
12:15 a.m. MSNBC reports that Hoffman has conceded. It has called the race for Owens.
12:02 a.m. Fox News calls it for Owens. DCCC touts the call. We'll see if others follow suit.
11:55 p.m. A call tonight looks unlikely. Owens has extended his lead slightly, to about 4,400 votes with 86 percent of precincts in.
11:31 p.m. Those late-reporting votes in St. Lawrence County are unlikely to do Hoffman much good. McHugh won the county 66-34, but it has swung for Owens 55-40 with about half of precincts in. Of course, this could suggest Hoffman's strong areas of the county haven't been counted yet.
11:26 p.m. Will Owens's margin tonight be big enough to make absentee ballots irrelevant and allow for a call? He leads by just less than 4,000 votes, and with about 10,000 absentees being sent out and Scozzafava a valid option for all absentee voters until Saturday, that would be a nearly impossible margin for Hoffman to make up.
11:19 p.m. Owens's lead stays steady at 49-45 with 75 percent of precincts reporting. GOP preparing for a loss.
11:02 p.m. Courtesy of the Washington Independent, GOP Watertown mayor says "it's over" for Hoffman.
10:59 p.m. With two-thirds in, Owens still leads 49-46. Oswego County, the biggest in the district, is going for Hoffman by just 8 percent after going for McHugh by 26 percent.
10:41 p.m. The margin has shrunk to 49-46 Owens with more than half of precincts in.
10:15 p.m. 23 percent of precincts in, and Owens still leads 51-44. With more than half of precincts in in Clinton and Jefferson counties, Owens leads the former by 18 points and the latter by 3 percent. McHugh won Clinton by a few thousand votes and Jefferson decisively -- more than three-to-one -- in a 65-35 win in 2008. That means Owens needs to run about 15 points better than McHugh's 2008 Democratic opponent, and he seems to be doing it so far.
10:08 p.m. The NRCC has McDonell winning the districts of Democratic Reps. Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher by more than 20 points. He won Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D) distrct by more than 10 points. All four districts could be in play in 2010.
9:59 p.m. Just less than one-sixth of precincts reporting, and Owens leads 51-44. Scozzafava still at 5 percent. Hard to glean any county-by-county indicators, as none of them have reported a majority of their precincts.
9:31 p.m. McDonnell looks like he beat the polls with his margin of victory by a few points, and Christie in New Jersey is running ahead of the polling with 44 percent of precincts reporting, leading Corzine 49-44. A good sign for Hoffman?
9:25 p.m. Hoffman says on Fox News: "We are going to win this without" Scozzafava.
9:22 p.m. The first results are in! With 2 of 606 precincts reporting, Owens leads 57-38, with Scozzafava at 5 percent. This, of course, represent such a tiny portion of the district -- only about 60 votes total.
9:15 p.m. The four towns mentioned where results are being delayed -- Louisville, Waddington, Rossie and Clare -- represent just more than 5 percent of St. Lawrence County, with a combined population of about 7,000, according to Census figures. That should make them only around 1 percent of the district.
9:11 p.m. For those interested in county-by-county results, they can be found here.
9:00 p.m. The polls are closed in New York. Results should begin rolling in within the hour.
8:44 p.m. St. Lawrence County had some voting machine problems today, which could lead to no results in several towns tonight. St. Lawrence is the second-biggest county in the district, according to 2008 results.
8:40 p.m. The New York Daily News's Liz Benjamin suggests a margin of less than 8,000 or 9,000 votes could draw this one out (as in the other New York special election) for a while past tonight, because of those pesky absentee ballots.
8:23 p.m. Republicans are talking big about the win in Virginia and suggesting 2010 implications.
This from NRCC spokesman Ken Spain:
“This is an ominous sign for those Democrats representing districts carried by both John McCain and Bob McDonnell. Creigh Deeds provided the evidence when he attacked the administration’s job-killing cap-and-trade bill in TV ads that were broadcast in the districts of vulnerable Congressional Democrats who supported this key aspect of the Obama-Pelosi agenda.”
8:09 p.m. In other non-New York news, the two other top-ballot races in Virginia have gone for Republicans in Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli.
7:59 p.m. Multipe outlets are now calling the Virginia governor's race for Republican Bob McDonnell. No surprise here, but it does put one of three big races firmly in the GOP column tonight. The real questions are further north in New Jersey's governor's race and the New York special election.