I’m worried about soybeans. We grow them on my farm in Iowa, along with corn and cattle.
As the planting season approaches, however, I’m not sure how to handle my soybeans. Should we plant more or fewer than last year? Much of it comes down to Mexico — will that market still be open by harvest time?
Like all American farmers, we need export markets. For us, Mexico has been a good destination for our soybeans. Our farm depends on these foreign customers.
So let me say this about NAFTA — it’s been great for me as a farmer because it helps keep me in business. It’s also been great for American consumers, who enjoy more choices and better prices on a range of products, from beer to guacamole.
My preference would be to keep things the way they are. President Trump, however, has a different idea. He says he wants to re-visit NAFTA and this is causing some uncertainty.
Farmers face uncertainty all the time. We lack forecasts for this summer’s weather. Will it be wet or dry? Hot or cool? Markets are volatile too. Will the demand for beans be strong or soft? Will prices go up or down?
If we could gaze into a crystal ball and learn these basic facts, our planting decisions each spring would be a lot easier. This year, however, we confront the added uncertainty of politics and whether we’re about to enter a tit-for-tat trade war with Mexico.
Nobody wins trade wars. I’m optimistic that we won’t enter one. Though I’ve been skeptical of what President Trump has said about trade, I think we should give him a chance to improve NAFTA.
First of all, he’s making good on a campaign promise. As a candidate, he pledged to renegotiate NAFTA. So we should expect him to try. Simply opposing any change to the status quo, even a status quo that’s working well, is to become irrelevant.
As farmers, we make changes all the time. Right now, on my farm, we’re going through a big one.
I got into the cattle business 35 years ago. The world has transformed since then, and the models that worked for us in the 1980s and 1990s don’t make much sense nowadays.
We’re a small player in a large-commodity market. To survive, we need to find a new niche, perhaps by selling directly to chefs or even artisan butchers.
I’m getting too old for this, so I’ve challenged my daughter, who now runs the family business, to adapt by updating our practices. I’m counting on young minds like hers to grasp the new economic realities and innovate for the future.
I’m also sharing with her a bit of wisdom that a wise old farmer passed along to me when I was about her age — don’t ever let yourself become convinced of anything. Let the market tell you what to do, and if it tells you to change, make sure you’re listening.
The political markets have just told us something — NAFTA is most likely going to change. It’s not just President Trump driving this change. If he had lost the election, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonCountering the ongoing Republican delusion Republicans seem set to win the midterms — unless they defeat themselves Poll: Democracy is under attack, and more violence may be the future MORE would likely have proposed a similar reformation.
At any rate, our country is about to reconsider NAFTA. As much as I am confident the existing agreement helps me and other farmers, as well as consumers, perhaps it’s time to give it a new look.
Since it came into effect, after all, we’ve undergone a technological revolution involving everything from online shopping to the ubiquity of mobile phones.
A new and improved NAFTA should account for this, making it easier for us to move goods and services across the border in a way that creates new opportunities for people on both sides of the exchange.
If it’s done well, then perhaps our cattle business will connect with restaurants in Chicago and Minneapolis, along with Monterrey and Veracruz.
Ultimately, we need a simple thing — Strong trade agreements with predictable allies.
We need to remember that everyone has a stake in these negotiations. It is imperative that we engage as stakeholders and make the case for trade. Don’t leave this to others to get it right.
Meanwhile, I’ve got to decide how many soybeans to plant this spring.
Reg Clause is a farmer based in Jefferson, Iowa and a business consultant. He is a board member for the Global Farmer Network, a nonprofit advocacy group led by farmers from around the world who support free trade.
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