Trump vs. Clinton? Don't bet on it

State of the 2016 Race
A column for The Hill analyzing the current state of the 2016 presidential race.

Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump claims media 'smeared' students involved in encounter with Native American man Al Sharpton criticizes Trump’s ‘secret’ visit to MLK monument Gillibrand cites spirituality in 2020 fight against Trump’s ‘dark’ values MORE (R) versus Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonElise Stefanik seeks to tackle GOP’s women ‘crisis’ ahead of 2020 Russian pop star linked to Trump Tower meeting cancels US tour Graham angers Dems by digging into Clinton, Obama controversies MORE in November? Don't bet on it.

Let's look at the state of both races after Super Tuesday:

1. Trump only got 35 percent of the overall vote overall on Tuesday — a familiar number, eh? In almost every poll in every state, The Donald registers at about 35 percent.

2. Self-described "late deciders" went against Trump — which might mean the recent attacks are working.

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3. And also look for more attacks as political experts have now judged that the Club For Growth anti-Trump TV campaign, which clearly worked in Iowa, again worked this week in both Oklahoma and Arkansas.

4. Reports are now circulating that Meg Whitman, Paul Singer, and the Ricketts' machine are supposedly meeting and conferencing calling to coordinate and fund an anti-Trump campaign — quickly.

5. Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGroup aiming to draft Beto O’Rourke unveils first 2020 video Howard Dean looking for a 'younger, newer' Democratic nominee in 2020 Congress can stop the war on science MORE (Texas) was the surprise winner of Super Tuesday as expectations had been so low for him going into voting.

6. Even Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamGraham angers Dems by digging into Clinton, Obama controversies Barr’s first task as AG: Look at former FBI leaders’ conduct Debate builds over making Mueller report public MORE (S.C.) said today he'd pick Cruz over Trump.

7. Gov. Charlie Baker, the new, young, impressive governor of Massachussetts — where Trump won big on Super Tuesday — yesterday said he would not vote for Trump. This is a growing GOP establishment trend, and one that portends a serious rupture of the Republican Party.

8. Coming up are states where Cruz can and might beat Trump: Kansas, Kentucky, Maine and Louisiana and a few caucuses, too.

9. Plus 20 "closed" GOP primary states where only Republicans can vote — not a good playing field for The Donald, who does better among working-class Dems and independents.

10. Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioRussian oligarch, allies retain key ownership in company after sanctions lifted: report Senate GOP eyes 'nuclear option' for Trump nominees next week Washington fears new threat from 'deepfake' videos MORE (Fla.) just isn't getting it done. Thus Cruz will soon — again — be the main competition to Trump.

11. Trump's threat to Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanTrump once asked Paul Ryan why he couldn’t be ‘loyal': book AEI names Robert Doar as new president GOP can't excommunicate King and ignore Trump playing to white supremacy and racism MORE (R-Wis.) will not go down well; threatening a Speaker by saying that if he doesn't get along, "he will pay," is not a smart or diplomatic move from the man who touts himself as the best negotiator.

12. I now believe that it's better than 50-50 that Hillary Clinton gets indicted.

13. As Ed Klein notes, Clinton will keep running for president even if indicted. That will not work. Indicted by a Democratic administration, Clinton cannot claim that it's the "vast right-wing conspiracy." That line has no relevance if President Obama's Justice Department indicts her.

14. The party, the donors and bundlers, the super-delegates and incumbents will not want to run alongside an indicted person.

15. They will drop Clinton like a hot potato — or, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellGraham angers Dems by digging into Clinton, Obama controversies Senate GOP eyes 'nuclear option' for Trump nominees next week Taiwan’s President Tsai should be invited to address Congress MORE (R-Ky.) says of Trump, "like a hot rock."

16. No, she'd be done and soon gone.

17. And then a new candidate: Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenBiden: 'We've learned in the last two years, it doesn't take much to awaken hate' 2020 Democrats barnstorm the country for MLK weekend BuzzFeed story has more to say about media than the president MORE? Former Secretary of State John KerryJohn Forbes KerryKerry rips Trump’s ‘pull-out, walk-away presidency’ Graham criticizes Trump canceling Pelosi trip as 'inappropriate’ Howard Dean to CNN: All Dem candidates qualified to be president except Tulsi Gabbard MORE? Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann Warren2020 Dems seize on MLK Day for campaign messaging Kamala Harris staffer mocks O'Reilly for saying Harris 'lost' his vote for president Kamala Harris announces presidential campaign MORE (Mass.)? California Gov. Jerry Brown? Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I)? Who knows?

18. Conclusion: Despite the media proclaiming that the nominations are all sewed up, in fact both races are still to be determined.

LeBoutillier is a former Republican congressman from New York and is the co-host of "Political Insiders" on Fox News Channel, Sunday nights at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. He writes semi-regular pieces in the Contributors section on the "State of the 2016 Race."