Trump vs. Clinton? Don't bet on it

State of the 2016 Race
A column for The Hill analyzing the current state of the 2016 presidential race.

Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Trump to hold outdoor rally in New Hampshire on Saturday Eighty-eight years of debt pieties MORE (R) versus Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSusan Rice sees stock rise in Biden VP race Democrats try to turn now into November The Memo: Unhappy voters could deliver political shocks beyond Trump MORE in November? Don't bet on it.

Let's look at the state of both races after Super Tuesday:

1. Trump only got 35 percent of the overall vote overall on Tuesday — a familiar number, eh? In almost every poll in every state, The Donald registers at about 35 percent.

2. Self-described "late deciders" went against Trump — which might mean the recent attacks are working.

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3. And also look for more attacks as political experts have now judged that the Club For Growth anti-Trump TV campaign, which clearly worked in Iowa, again worked this week in both Oklahoma and Arkansas.

4. Reports are now circulating that Meg Whitman, Paul Singer, and the Ricketts' machine are supposedly meeting and conferencing calling to coordinate and fund an anti-Trump campaign — quickly.

5. Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGianforte halts in-person campaigning after wife, running mate attend event with Guilfoyle Trump administration grants funding extension for Texas testing sites Hillicon Valley: Democrats introduce bill banning federal government use of facial recognition tech | House lawmakers roll out legislation to establish national cyber director | Top federal IT official to step down MORE (Texas) was the surprise winner of Super Tuesday as expectations had been so low for him going into voting.

6. Even Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Russian bounties revive Trump-GOP foreign policy divide Jaime Harrison seeks to convince Democrats he can take down Lindsey Graham MORE (S.C.) said today he'd pick Cruz over Trump.

7. Gov. Charlie Baker, the new, young, impressive governor of Massachussetts — where Trump won big on Super Tuesday — yesterday said he would not vote for Trump. This is a growing GOP establishment trend, and one that portends a serious rupture of the Republican Party.

8. Coming up are states where Cruz can and might beat Trump: Kansas, Kentucky, Maine and Louisiana and a few caucuses, too.

9. Plus 20 "closed" GOP primary states where only Republicans can vote — not a good playing field for The Donald, who does better among working-class Dems and independents.

10. Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioRussian bounties revive Trump-GOP foreign policy divide Congress eyes tighter restrictions on next round of small business help Trump administration eyes new strategy on COVID-19 tests MORE (Fla.) just isn't getting it done. Thus Cruz will soon — again — be the main competition to Trump.

11. Trump's threat to Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanBush, Romney won't support Trump reelection: NYT Twitter joins Democrats to boost mail-in voting — here's why Lobbying world MORE (R-Wis.) will not go down well; threatening a Speaker by saying that if he doesn't get along, "he will pay," is not a smart or diplomatic move from the man who touts himself as the best negotiator.

12. I now believe that it's better than 50-50 that Hillary Clinton gets indicted.

13. As Ed Klein notes, Clinton will keep running for president even if indicted. That will not work. Indicted by a Democratic administration, Clinton cannot claim that it's the "vast right-wing conspiracy." That line has no relevance if President Obama's Justice Department indicts her.

14. The party, the donors and bundlers, the super-delegates and incumbents will not want to run alongside an indicted person.

15. They will drop Clinton like a hot potato — or, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Eighty-eight years of debt pieties Ernst says Trump should sign defense policy bill with military base renaming provision MORE (R-Ky.) says of Trump, "like a hot rock."

16. No, she'd be done and soon gone.

17. And then a new candidate: Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Susan Rice: Trump picks Putin over troops 'even when it comes to the blood of American service members' Does Donald Trump even want a second term? MORE? Former Secretary of State John KerryJohn Forbes KerrySusan Rice sees stock rise in Biden VP race Wesley Clark says Trump not serving in Vietnam 'might have been for the best' in light of Russian bounty reports Juan Williams: Time for boldness from Biden MORE? Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenSusan Rice sees stock rise in Biden VP race The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden chips away at Trump's fundraising advantage Warnock raises almost M in Georgia Senate race in second quarter MORE (Mass.)? California Gov. Jerry Brown? Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I)? Who knows?

18. Conclusion: Despite the media proclaiming that the nominations are all sewed up, in fact both races are still to be determined.

LeBoutillier is a former Republican congressman from New York and is the co-host of "Political Insiders" on Fox News Channel, Sunday nights at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. He writes semi-regular pieces in the Contributors section on the "State of the 2016 Race."