Trump vs. Clinton? Don't bet on it

State of the 2016 Race
A column for The Hill analyzing the current state of the 2016 presidential race.

Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpGrassroots America shows the people support Donald Trump Trump speaks to rebel Libyan general attacking Tripoli Dem lawmaker: Mueller report shows 'substantial body of evidence' on obstruction MORE (R) versus Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonGrassroots America shows the people support Donald Trump Ex-FBI official: 'Links and coordination' with Russia happen everyday Ex-FBI agent: Americans should be 'disgusted' by Russian interference in Mueller report MORE in November? Don't bet on it.

Let's look at the state of both races after Super Tuesday:

1. Trump only got 35 percent of the overall vote overall on Tuesday — a familiar number, eh? In almost every poll in every state, The Donald registers at about 35 percent.

2. Self-described "late deciders" went against Trump — which might mean the recent attacks are working.

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3. And also look for more attacks as political experts have now judged that the Club For Growth anti-Trump TV campaign, which clearly worked in Iowa, again worked this week in both Oklahoma and Arkansas.

4. Reports are now circulating that Meg Whitman, Paul Singer, and the Ricketts' machine are supposedly meeting and conferencing calling to coordinate and fund an anti-Trump campaign — quickly.

5. Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzBooker, Harris have missed most Senate votes O'Rourke sweeps through Virginia looking to energize campaign Disney to donate million to rebuild Notre Dame MORE (Texas) was the surprise winner of Super Tuesday as expectations had been so low for him going into voting.

6. Even Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamJudiciary chairman issues subpoena for full Mueller report The Hill's Morning Report — Mueller aftermath: What will House Dems do now? Barr to allow some lawmakers to review less-redacted Mueller report as soon as next week MORE (S.C.) said today he'd pick Cruz over Trump.

7. Gov. Charlie Baker, the new, young, impressive governor of Massachussetts — where Trump won big on Super Tuesday — yesterday said he would not vote for Trump. This is a growing GOP establishment trend, and one that portends a serious rupture of the Republican Party.

8. Coming up are states where Cruz can and might beat Trump: Kansas, Kentucky, Maine and Louisiana and a few caucuses, too.

9. Plus 20 "closed" GOP primary states where only Republicans can vote — not a good playing field for The Donald, who does better among working-class Dems and independents.

10. Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioFreedom to Compete Act would benefit many American workers Booker, Harris have missed most Senate votes Dems say attorney general undermined credibility with Trump talking point MORE (Fla.) just isn't getting it done. Thus Cruz will soon — again — be the main competition to Trump.

11. Trump's threat to Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanFEC filing: No individuals donated to indicted GOP rep this cycle The Hill's Morning Report - Waiting on Mueller: Answers come on Thursday Paul Ryan joins University of Notre Dame faculty MORE (R-Wis.) will not go down well; threatening a Speaker by saying that if he doesn't get along, "he will pay," is not a smart or diplomatic move from the man who touts himself as the best negotiator.

12. I now believe that it's better than 50-50 that Hillary Clinton gets indicted.

13. As Ed Klein notes, Clinton will keep running for president even if indicted. That will not work. Indicted by a Democratic administration, Clinton cannot claim that it's the "vast right-wing conspiracy." That line has no relevance if President Obama's Justice Department indicts her.

14. The party, the donors and bundlers, the super-delegates and incumbents will not want to run alongside an indicted person.

15. They will drop Clinton like a hot potato — or, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellThe Hill's Morning Report — Mueller aftermath: What will House Dems do now? Overnight Health Care: McConnell offering bill to raise tobacco-buying age to 21 | NC gov vetoes 'born alive' abortion bill | CMS backs off controversial abortion proposal HR 1 brings successful local, state reforms to the federal level and deserves passage MORE (R-Ky.) says of Trump, "like a hot rock."

16. No, she'd be done and soon gone.

17. And then a new candidate: Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenFive former Obama ambassadors back Buttigieg Report: Biden will announce 2020 bid next week The Hill's Morning Report — Mueller aftermath: What will House Dems do now? MORE? Former Secretary of State John KerryJohn Forbes KerryButtigieg to fundraise in DC with major Obama, Clinton bundlers next month: report The Hill's 12:30 Report: Inside the Mueller report Democrats need a 'celebrity' candidate — and it's not Biden or Sanders MORE? Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenThe Hill's Morning Report — Mueller aftermath: What will House Dems do now? Warren spends big on staff in high-stakes 2020 gamble On The Money: Inside the Mueller report | Cain undeterred in push for Fed seat | Analysis finds modest boost to economy from new NAFTA | White House says deal will give auto sector B boost MORE (Mass.)? California Gov. Jerry Brown? Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I)? Who knows?

18. Conclusion: Despite the media proclaiming that the nominations are all sewed up, in fact both races are still to be determined.

LeBoutillier is a former Republican congressman from New York and is the co-host of "Political Insiders" on Fox News Channel, Sunday nights at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. He writes semi-regular pieces in the Contributors section on the "State of the 2016 Race."