Trump vs. Clinton? Don't bet on it

State of the 2016 Race
A column for The Hill analyzing the current state of the 2016 presidential race.

Donald TrumpDonald TrumpBiden to move ahead with billion UAE weapons sale approved by Trump Fox News hires high-profile defense team in Dominion defamation lawsuit Associate indicted in Gaetz scandal cooperating with DOJ: report MORE (R) versus Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhy does Bernie Sanders want to quash Elon Musk's dreams? Republican legislators target private sector election grants How Democrats can defy the odds in 2022 MORE in November? Don't bet on it.

Let's look at the state of both races after Super Tuesday:

1. Trump only got 35 percent of the overall vote overall on Tuesday — a familiar number, eh? In almost every poll in every state, The Donald registers at about 35 percent.

2. Self-described "late deciders" went against Trump — which might mean the recent attacks are working.

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3. And also look for more attacks as political experts have now judged that the Club For Growth anti-Trump TV campaign, which clearly worked in Iowa, again worked this week in both Oklahoma and Arkansas.

4. Reports are now circulating that Meg Whitman, Paul Singer, and the Ricketts' machine are supposedly meeting and conferencing calling to coordinate and fund an anti-Trump campaign — quickly.

5. Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz raises .3 million in first quarter of 2021 Boehner says he voted for Trump, didn't push back on election claims because he's retired Boehner: Trump's claims of stolen election a 'sad moment in American history' MORE (Texas) was the surprise winner of Super Tuesday as expectations had been so low for him going into voting.

6. Even Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamGOP lawmaker 'encouraged' by Biden's Afghanistan strategy Biden sparks bipartisan backlash on Afghanistan withdrawal  Graham: 'A full withdrawal from Afghanistan is dumber than dirt and devilishly dangerous' MORE (S.C.) said today he'd pick Cruz over Trump.

7. Gov. Charlie Baker, the new, young, impressive governor of Massachussetts — where Trump won big on Super Tuesday — yesterday said he would not vote for Trump. This is a growing GOP establishment trend, and one that portends a serious rupture of the Republican Party.

8. Coming up are states where Cruz can and might beat Trump: Kansas, Kentucky, Maine and Louisiana and a few caucuses, too.

9. Plus 20 "closed" GOP primary states where only Republicans can vote — not a good playing field for The Donald, who does better among working-class Dems and independents.

10. Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioJon Stewart accuses VA of being 'an obstacle' to burn pits medical care Family policy that could appeal to the right and the left Exclusive: GOP senators seek FBI investigation into Biden Pentagon nominee MORE (Fla.) just isn't getting it done. Thus Cruz will soon — again — be the main competition to Trump.

11. Trump's threat to Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanTrump faces test of power with early endorsements Lobbying world Boehner throws support behind Republican who backed Trump impeachment MORE (R-Wis.) will not go down well; threatening a Speaker by saying that if he doesn't get along, "he will pay," is not a smart or diplomatic move from the man who touts himself as the best negotiator.

12. I now believe that it's better than 50-50 that Hillary Clinton gets indicted.

13. As Ed Klein notes, Clinton will keep running for president even if indicted. That will not work. Indicted by a Democratic administration, Clinton cannot claim that it's the "vast right-wing conspiracy." That line has no relevance if President Obama's Justice Department indicts her.

14. The party, the donors and bundlers, the super-delegates and incumbents will not want to run alongside an indicted person.

15. They will drop Clinton like a hot potato — or, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell seeks to end feud with Trump Senate GOP signal they won't filibuster debate of hate crimes bill Colin Powell on Afghanistan: 'We've done all we can do' MORE (R-Ky.) says of Trump, "like a hot rock."

16. No, she'd be done and soon gone.

17. And then a new candidate: Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenIRS to roll out payments for ,000 child tax credit in July Capitol Police told not to use most aggressive tactics in riot response, report finds Biden to accompany first lady to appointment for 'common medical procedure' MORE? Former Secretary of State John KerryJohn KerryOvernight Energy: Michigan reps reintroduce measure for national 'forever chemicals' standard |  White House says gas tax won't be part of infrastructure bill Kerry to visit China ahead of White House climate summit CO2 tax support is based in myth: Taxing essential energy harms more than it helps MORE? Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenForgiving K in school loans would free 36 million student borrowers from debt: data IRS chief warns of unpaid taxes hitting trillion Biden sparks bipartisan backlash on Afghanistan withdrawal  MORE (Mass.)? California Gov. Jerry Brown? Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I)? Who knows?

18. Conclusion: Despite the media proclaiming that the nominations are all sewed up, in fact both races are still to be determined.

LeBoutillier is a former Republican congressman from New York and is the co-host of "Political Insiders" on Fox News Channel, Sunday nights at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. He writes semi-regular pieces in the Contributors section on the "State of the 2016 Race."