Trump has motivated Hispanics to vote — against him
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After months of GOP nominee Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpGrassley: Dems 'withheld information' on new Kavanaugh allegation Health advocates decry funding transfer over migrant children Groups plan mass walkout in support of Kavanaugh accuser MORE telling us that he loves Hispanics and they will vote for him in November, we now know that his claims of loving Hispanics are falling on deaf ears and that Hispanics massively oppose his candidacy.

Latino Decisions, a Hispanic-founded and -owned polling firm, has released a poll taken between Aug. 19 and Aug. 30 of 3,729 Hispanics by landline, the web and cellphones.


The results bury Trump and his claims, all of which are based on a Gravis Marketing poll taken by the Miami-based firm during the Nevada GOP caucus. They polled 20 Hispanic Republicans, of which eight preferred Trump. He went on national television to brag that 40 percent of Hispanics supported him and that he would carry Hispanics. That poll was not legitimate and didn't include enough respondents to be accurate or meaningful.

The Latino Decisions poll was developed by the Hispanic principals and conducted by mostly Hispanic pollsters in English and Spanish. They also know that Hispanics aren't a race.

(In full disclosure, this writer has not always agreed with how Latino Decisions finds respondents; i.e., they tend to miss many people with non-Spanish surnames. With almost 30 percent of Hispanic women marrying non-Hispanics, there are many, many Hispanics who are not polled because their surnames don't make the cut. The other objection I have is that they poll registered voters and not likely voters or voters who always vote. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue with 3,729 respondents and a margin of error of a tiny 1.6 percent.)

It has been blessed with a patina of legitimacy from the Dean of Political Prognosticators from academia, Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Sabato tweeted that "Most polls have too few Latinos for valid conclusions," but that the Latino Decisions poll "has everything" and is "exceptionally well-done."

Just what did the survey show us about how Hispanics feel about the presidential election and whom they look at favorably and unfavorably?

First, Trump's signature issue is a triad of illegal immigration, illegal residency and crime by illegal immigrants. So, are immigration issues important to Hispanics? Yes, 38 percent polled said immigration is the No. 1 issue for Hispanics; 32 percent said the economy. Healthcare is thought by 14 percent to be No. 1 issue for Hispanics, the same amount who consider anti-Latino and anti-immigrant discrimination to be the most important issue.

Why do Hispanics think immigration the No. 1 issue to their community? Simple, 59 percent of respondents declared that they know people here illegally, including friends, coworkers and relatives.

As to the presidential candidates, 68 percent of Hispanics have a "very" or "somewhat favorable" impression of Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonGraham: There's a 'bureaucratic coup' taking place against Trump Fox News poll shows Dems with edge ahead of midterms Poll: Democrats in position to retake the House MORE, with 29 percent having a "very" or "somewhat unfavorable" opinion. Trump, on the other hand, is upside down with 21 percent holding a "very" or "somewhat favorable" opinion and a whopping 74 percent holding "very" or "somewhat unfavorable" impressions of the GOP nominee.

Like among so-called "whites," Hispanic men like Trump better than Hispanic women do. Twenty-four percent of men favor Trump, while only 14 percent of Hispanic women like Trump. English speakers? Only 23 percent for Trump. Spanish speakers? Only 14 percent for Trump. Native-born? Twenty-one percent for Trump. Naturalized? Fourteen percent for Trump.

Trump has motivated Hispanics to vote to the extent that 76 percent of them think it is more important to vote this November than in 2012. Fifty-one percent give their principal motivation to vote as stopping Trump.

An estimated 12 or more of every 100 voters this November will be Hispanic. The Latino Decisions poll shows us that the election's results are baked in; there is nothing Trump can do to entice any of these people to consider voting for him.

See, for example, his speech in Phoenix — given the same day he shined in Mexico City, where he called Mexicans "exemplary" — sounded more like German politicians discussing Jews in 1933.

It is over for Trump. He is behind with Catholics, white women, college graduates and Hispanics, educated or not. The election results will mirror this poll and what happened after Trump's Phoenix speech; many of Trump's not-so-numerous Hispanic supporters jumped away from his National Hispanic Advisory Council group.

There are many reasons for Hispanics to vote against Trump. The poll hits a sweet spot with the question: Do you know anyone who is in the U.S. illegally? Six out of 10 respondents said yes. Game over.

It's bad enough to call Mexican immigrants "rapists" and "criminals," but demanding to deport one's abuelita — grandmother — sinks Trump beyond saving or salvage.

Contreras formerly wrote for Creators Syndicate and the New American News Service of The New York Times Syndicate.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.