More business economists expect later recession than previously forecast: survey
Most economists in a new survey expect a recession in the U.S. this year — but a growing number predict it will come later than initially forecast.
The report from the National Association for Business Economists (NABE) found that while there are widely divergent views among economists on where the U.S. economy is headed, many still expected a recession to hit later this year.
Nearly 60 percent of respondents said that they thought the U.S. had a better than 50 percent chance to slide into a recession in the next 12 months. Of those, a plurality of 38 percent forecast the recession would hit in the second quarter of the year, while 28 percent said it would hit in the first quarter and 21 percent said the third quarter, according to multiple outlets.
According to Fortune, the number of forecasters who predict a recession in the first quarter has been cut in half since December.
The survey was conducted among 48 professional forecasters from Feb. 3-10.
The results showcase the varying opinions of experts, according to the group’s president.
“Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy—ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth,” NABE President Julia Coronado said in a statement.
One of factors driving the differing views of economists is the Federal Reserve’s continuing fight against inflation, which has driven the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. Economists differ on how long the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, how long they will remain at peak levels and when cuts to the rates may come.
“Panelists’ views are split regarding how high the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, how long rates might stay at the peak, when cuts would begin, and what would signal the central bank’s actions on each of these fronts,” said Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair. “Respondents are also highly concerned but divided in their opinions regarding the consequences of other matters that might affect the U.S. economy, including the impact of China’s reopening on global inflation and the looming debt ceiling.”
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