Campaign Polls

Poll shows McSally gaining support over Sinema in Arizona Senate race

Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) holds a 6-point lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in a new poll of their Arizona Senate race.

The ABC15-OH Insights poll, which was released on Wednesday, found that 47 percent of likely voters favor McSally in the race to replace Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who is retiring. 

Meanwhile, 41 percent of voters said they favored Sinema. Four percent said they support Green Party candidate Angela Green. The survey said Green may be taking away support on the left from Sinema.

"Our September 5th poll showed McSally taking the lead over Sinema and continues to lead into October," chief pollster Mike Noble said in a statement. "The combination of Angela Green entering the race and Trump's approval increase is having a negative effect on Sinema, making her numbers go down."

Sinema leads McSally by 12 points among independent voters. Forty-eight percent of independents said they favored the Democratic candidate, while 36 percent of them said they favored McSally. 

In September, the same survey found that McSally had a 3-point advantage over Sinema, a lead that fell within the margin of error. It had also noted that McSally's lead appeared to be correlated with President Trump's approval rating rising in Arizona. 

But this survey appeared to indicate that while Trump's approval has continued to rise among key swing groups, McSally's has not followed a similar pace.

For example, Trump's approval rose by about 7 points among people with a bachelor's degree this month. But McSally's lead over Sinema among that group dropped by 0.5 percentage points.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists the Senate race as a "toss-up."  

The ABC 15-OH Insights poll was conducted on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2 among a sample population of 600 adults. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.