Poll: McSally has 7-point lead on Sinema in Arizona Senate race

GOP Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by AT&T - Senate passes infrastructure bill, budget resolution; Cuomo resigns Schumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up GOP group launches million ad campaign pressing Kelly on filibuster MORE has a 7-point lead over Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema in their battle for an Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights shows McSally with the support of 52 percent of likely voters, compared to Sinema's 45 percent. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

The ABC15 poll surveyed 600 likely voters between Oct. 22 and 23. The margin of error for the sample is 4 percentage points.


The poll differs from several others that have been released in recent days that showed Sinema with an edge over McSally.

A CNN poll released Wednesday, which interviewed voters Oct. 24-29, gave Sinema a 4-point lead, right at the edge of the margin of error for the sample (4 percentage points).

A poll by NBC News/Marist conducted Oct. 23-27 showed Sinema with a 6-point lead, and a poll by CBS News/You Gov conducted Oct. 23-26 showed Sinema with a 3-point edge.

A New York Times poll earlier this month had McSally up by 2 points. 

OH's chief pollster Mike Noble noted in his survey that independent support for McSally was key to her advantage.

“The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll," he said.

Noble also told ABC 15 that the Supreme Court nomination process of Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughRepublicans keep distance from 'Justice for J6' rally Senators denounce protest staged outside home of Justice Kavanaugh Why isn't Harris leading the charge against the Texas abortion law? MORE had pushed the race toward McSally.

"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," he said.