Poll: McSally has 7-point lead on Sinema in Arizona Senate race

GOP Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump-GOP tensions over Syria show signs of easing Trump's GOP impeachment firewall holds strong Furious Republicans prepare to rebuke Trump on Syria MORE has a 7-point lead over Democratic Rep. Krysten SinemaKyrsten Lea SinemaTop Arizona GOP official asks supporters to help stop 'gun grabber' Mark Kelly 'dead in his tracks' Trump endorses McSally in Arizona Senate race Abortion rights group knocks Sinema for supporting Trump judicial pick MORE in their battle for an Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights shows McSally with the support of 52 percent of likely voters, compared to Sinema's 45 percent. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

The ABC15 poll surveyed 600 likely voters between Oct. 22 and 23. The margin of error for the sample is 4 percentage points.


The poll differs from several others that have been released in recent days that showed Sinema with an edge over McSally.

A CNN poll released Wednesday, which interviewed voters Oct. 24-29, gave Sinema a 4-point lead, right at the edge of the margin of error for the sample (4 percentage points).

A poll by NBC News/Marist conducted Oct. 23-27 showed Sinema with a 6-point lead, and a poll by CBS News/You Gov conducted Oct. 23-26 showed Sinema with a 3-point edge.

A New York Times poll earlier this month had McSally up by 2 points. 

OH's chief pollster Mike Noble noted in his survey that independent support for McSally was key to her advantage.

“The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll," he said.

Noble also told ABC 15 that the Supreme Court nomination process of Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughSusan Collins raises .1 million in third quarter Poll: 50 percent of Maine voters disapprove of Susan Collins's job performance Collins challenger raises .2 million in third quarter MORE had pushed the race toward McSally.

"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," he said.