Story at a glance

  • The estimate comes as coronavirus cases are surging in many states across the country.
  • On Wednesday, more than 38,000 new infections were reported by state health departments.
  • Meanwhile, the University of Washington on Wednesday forecast nearly 180,000 deaths from COVID-19 by Oct. 1. Deaths from the virus, however, could drop to 147,000 if 95 percent of Americans wore masks.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now estimates there may be up to 150,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. by July 18, as cases spike across the country. 

The CDC’s weekly ensemble forecast is an average of predictions of COVID-19 deaths from 20 different models. 


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This week’s forecast suggests that there will likely be between 130,000 and 150,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 18. 


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“The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks,” the CDC said. 

“For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar to the number seen in the previous four weeks or to decrease slightly.” 

On Wednesday, more than 38,000 new infections were reported by state health departments, breaking the previous single-day record of 34,203 on April 25, according to The Washington Post. Texas, Florida and California all reported more than 5,000 new cases on Wednesday. 

The U.S. has recorded more than 2.3 million coronavirus cases with nearly 122,000 deaths since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins University data. 

Meanwhile, the University of Washington on Wednesday forecast nearly 180,000 deaths from COVID-19 by Oct. 1.

The prediction by the school’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts, however, that deaths from the virus could drop to 147,000 if 95 percent of Americans wore masks. 

“There is no doubt that even as states open up, the United States is still grappling with a large epidemic on a course to increase beginning in late August and intensifying in September,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement. 


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Published on Jun 24, 2020