Story at a glance

  • The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting a national peak in the number of COVID-19 deaths for April 12.
  • The day before is projected to be the peak day for use of hospital resources in the United States.
  • The projection could change if social distancing measures are loosened early.

More than 2,000 Americans are predicted to die of COVID-19 on April 12, according to a model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

It's expected to be the most deaths in one day during the novel coronavirus pandemic in the United States, at least through August, although public health officials have raised the possibility of a second wave later this year. 


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If IHME estimates are correct, the day before will have marked the peak use of hospital resources against the coronavirus, including more than 94,000 beds, about 19,500 ICU beds and at least 16,500 invasive ventilators.

The estimates are based on data from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization (WHO) and a range of other sources. The model also estimates peak dates for both hospital resource use and deaths in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.  

However, the projection assumes full social distancing observed through May 2020. If, in practice, Americans deviate from established social distancing measures or restrictions are let up before May, the projection will likely change

As of April 10, the IHME predicts a total of 60,415 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by August 4. 


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Published on Apr 10, 2020