Arizona Mirror associate editor and politics reporter Jeremy Duda said on Friday that shifting demographics and criticism against President TrumpDonald TrumpMcAuliffe takes tougher stance on Democrats in Washington Democrats troll Trump over Virginia governor's race Tom Glavine, Ric Flair, Doug Flutie to join Trump for Herschel Walker event MORE could give Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenPressure grows for breakthrough in Biden agenda talks State school board leaves national association saying they called parents domestic terrorists Sunday shows preview: Supply chain crisis threaten holiday sales; uncertainty over whether US can sustain nationwide downward trend in COVID-19 cases MORE an advantage in the battleground state.
The latest ABC News-Washington Post poll found Trump leading Biden among voters in Arizona by a slim margin — 49 percent to 48 percent. The poll also reported a tight race for Senate in Arizona, with Democrat Mark KellyMark KellyDemocratic incumbents bolster fundraising advantage in key Senate races Warnock raises .5 million in third quarter Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover MORE at 49 percent and Sen. Martha McSally (R) at 48 percent among likely voters.
Duda said during an interview on Hill.TV Friday that these tightening margins could be explained by an increase of Democratic support in Maricopa County, home to more than 4 million people and accounting for more than 60 percent of the state's population. The area, which also includes the city of Phoenix, has become increasingly blue over the years.
“Races for the legislature are getting closer, the margins are narrower than they’ve been since the 1960s for the Democrats,” Duda said.
“You’re definitely seeing some changes, and it’s hard to say whether that’s a result of Trump or if it’s really a result of real long-term changes that will probably take a few more election cycles to really get a handle on that,” Duda added. “But at least for now, things are much more in play for Democrats than they normally would be.”
The Arizona journalist also pointed out that the last Democrat to win the battleground state was Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonBill Clinton expected to be released from hospital on Sunday Democratic incumbents bolster fundraising advantage in key Senate races Biden giving stiff-arm to press interviews MORE in the 1996 election. He added, though, that Democrats have more recently been performing better in the Southwestern state, with Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonTrump criticizes Justice for restoring McCabe's benefits Biden sends 'best wishes' to Clinton following hospitalization The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Altria - Jan. 6 panel flexes its muscle MORE losing by only 4 percentage points in 2016.