GOP pollster: Democrats are poised to take back the House

A Republican pollster says Democrats have a "better than ever" chance of taking back the House this fall, despite President TrumpDonald John TrumpBusiness, ballots and battling opioids: Why the Universal Postal Union benefits the US Sanders supporters cry foul over Working Families endorsement of Warren California poll: Biden, Sanders lead Democratic field; Harris takes fifth MORE's predictions of a "red wave" in November's midterms.

Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group, a GOP research and polling firm, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha that the president is poised to lose his majority in the House, warning that Democrats could take as many as 23 seats in November.

"Well, the Democrats have to win 21 seats to take control. I think it's a better than even chance at this point that that will happen," Goeas said.

"Of the 32 seats that are toss-up seats, only four are Democrat, are Democratic seats," he added. "So I'm going to say 23."

President Trump has frequently predicted a "red wave" of GOP victories in November both on Twitter and in media appearances, dismissing Democratic enthusiasm and recent polls that show Democrats with an edge on generic House ballots.

In a tweet earlier this month, Trump pointed to John Cox's win in California's GOP gubernatorial primary as evidence of a coming red wave, adding that "the Trump impact was really big."

"Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California. He can win," he tweeted. "Even Fake News CNN said the Trump impact was really big, much bigger than they ever thought possible. So much for the big Blue Wave, it may be a big Red Wave. Working hard!"

In another message, the president threw a wrench in GOP Congress members' efforts to address immigration issues, calling for Republicans to "stop wasting their time" voting on immigration legislation until after what he expects to be a "Red Wave."

"Republicans should stop wasting their time on Immigration until after we elect more Senators and Congressmen/women in November. Dems are just playing games, have no intention of doing anything to solves this decades old problem. We can pass great legislation after the Red Wave!" he tweeted.


—John Bowden