Hill.TV poll: Dems have double-digit lead over Republicans on generic ballot

Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on the generic ballot roughly two months out from November’s midterm elections, according to the American Barometer.

The survey, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company. found that 45 percent of respondents said they would cast their vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 34 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

Democrats have maintained their lead from the last American Barometer generic ballot poll, which was conducted Aug. 12-13. 

In that poll, 43 percent of voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 32 percent said they would vote for Republicans. 

The latest survey displayed greater enthusiasm among Democrats for their candidates compared to Republicans.

Ninety-four percent of Democrats polled said they would support their party’s candidate in the general election, while only one percent said they would support the GOP candidate.

Nine percent of Republicans said they would cast their vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, which is triple the 3 percent that said the same thing in the last American Barometer poll. 

However, the poll shows Republican candidates still appear to enjoy widespread support among their supporters, with 83 percent of Republican respondents saying they would vote for the GOP candidate in November, which is up two points from the last survey. 

Pollster Dan Cox cautioned against reading too much into the generic ballot, telling Hill.TV’s Joe Concha on “What America’s Thinking” that midterm races often vary district by district.

“The action is occurring district by district, and it really varies, depending on candidate quality, resources, the demographics of the particular district,” Cox, who is the research director at the Public Religion Research Institute, said.

“So we’re not looking at a national election, we’re looking at a whole bunch of local elections that determine sort of the national outcome,” he continued.

The American Barometer poll was conducted Aug. 24-25, 2018 among 1,0001 registered voters. The sampling margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

— Julia Manchester