Dems should take nothing for granted despite midterm lead, says pollster


Pollster Dalia Mogahed said Wednesday that Democratic candidates in this year’s midterms cannot take their party’s lead on the generic ballot for granted with less than two weeks to go before the elections. 

“The folks that are trying to get a change in Congress have to work day and night until Election Day. They can’t take anything for granted,” Mogahed, director of research at the Institute of Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), told Hill.TV’s Jamal Simmons on “What America’s Thinking.”

A new American Barometer survey released Wednesday showed Democrats with a 6 point lead among Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. 

That lead is down four points from the last American Barometer on the generic ballot earlier this month, which showed Democrats with a 10 point edge. 

“I think it is going to matter because it’s a lot closer now,” Mogahed said when asked whether the decrease would matter.

The battle for the House appears to be in the Democratic Party’s favor. 

RealClearPolitics generic congressional vote average on Wednesday showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8 percentage points on the generic ballot. 

The Cook Political Report has rated 72 Republican seats and only five Democratic seats in the House as “at risk” ahead of the November midterms.

Democrats’ path to taking back the Senate appears to be more fraught, with the tide moving against various Democratic candidates in states won by President Trump. 

— Julia Manchester

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