Pollster says midterm turnout will not be that different from past years

Pollster Dan Cox said that November’s midterm elections will likely not be that different from past midterms in terms of turnout in an interview that aired Tuesday on “What America’s Thinking.”

“I think if you look at the typical midterm demographics, this one may be a little bit different where you see the groups that don’t historically turnout in midterm elections, people of color, young people, Independents may see a little bit higher rates,” Cox, research director at the Public Religion Research Institute, told Hill.TV’s Joe Concha.

“But I think historically this is not going to be that anomalous from previous midterm elections.”

Conservative analyst Henry Olsen said it’s possible that this election may see the most votes cast ever for a midterm, but noted the turnout will not match turnout in a presidential election. 

“I do think it will be a high turnout for midterms, but you still have the regular dynamics, which is that there are people who are presidential-only voters. 

Cox and Olsen were responding to a recent Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll which found that 40 percent of 18-29 year-olds said they were “likely to vote” in the midterms. 

The survey also found that 54 percent of Democrats said they were “likely to vote” in the midterms, which is up from 51 percent in April. 

Forty-three percent of Republicans also said they were “likely to vote” in the elections, up from 36 percent in April. 

— Julia Manchester

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