Poll: 40 percent of voters don't think Trump will win reelection

Voters are almost evenly split over whether President TrumpDonald John TrumpObama slams Trump in Miami: 'Florida Man wouldn't even do this stuff' Trump makes his case in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin Pence's chief of staff tests positive for COVID-19 MORE will win his bid for reelection in the 2020 election, according to a new national survey released on Tuesday.

The Hill-HarrisX poll found that 40 percent of registered voters said that they don’t believe Trump will win reelection, while 39 percent said that they thought he would win a second term.

Twenty-one percent of those surveyed said they were unsure about the president’s chances for reelection.

Younger voters were least likely to be optimistic about Trump’s odds.

Of voters surveyed aged 18-34, 49 percent said they didn't think Trump would be reelected. Of those aged 65 and over, 44 percent shared the same sentiment.

When broken down by gender, 47 percent of women said Trump wouldn't be reelected, compared to 33 percent of men. 

Trump, who formally launched his reelection bid in June, has had relatively steady approval ratings for a significant part of his presidency, hovering in the low-to-mid-40 range. 

A RealClearPolitics average of polling on Tuesday showed Trump's approval at 42.6 percent.

The Hill-HarrisX's own survey conducted less than two weeks ago showed his standing among voters slightly higher, with 46 percent approval.

However, it appears the president is slipping among some key voting blocs, including women. Several polls show Trump's job performance slightly down among women voters as his campaign ramps up efforts to energize that base.

The Hill-HarrisX survey was conducted online among 1,001 registered voters between Aug. 23-24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

— Tess Bonn