Poll: Biden, Trump neck-and-neck in general election

President Trump and the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, are neck-and-neck in a new Hill-HarrisX general election match-up.

Biden received 42 percent support in the new survey, while President Trump trailed 2 percentage points behind at 40 percent, within the poll’s margin of error.

Five percent of registered voters polled said that they would prefer to vote for someone else, while 4 percent said they would not vote at all.

Nine percent of voters are still unsure.

The presidential contenders received about the same amount of party loyalty, with Trump slightly ahead of Biden among party support and independent voters.

President Trump received 82 percent support from Republican voters, while Biden received 79 percent support among Democratic voters.

Among Independents, 34 percent said they would vote for Trump, while 32 percent said the same of Biden.

Nine percent of independents said they would like to vote for someone else, 7 percent said they would not vote and 18 percent said they were undecided at the time the survey was conducted.

Another notable demographic that is not yet decided on either Trump or Biden were women, according to the Hill-HarrsX poll.

In the most recent Hill-HarrisX presidential approval survey, conducted April 19-20, 56 percent of women said they disapproved of the job Trump was doing as President.

In the general election match-up, Biden received 12 percent more support from women than his potential opponent, garnering 43 percent from the group as opposed to Trump’s to 35 percent among women. However, 22 percent of women said they supported neither.

One in 10 women said they would like to vote for someone else or not vote, while another one in 10 said they were still unsure.

“It’s interesting how many women seem undecided or leaning against supporting a major party candidate. Men are supporting Trump at much higher rates than women, but men and women register roughly the same level of support for Biden,” Dan Cox, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told Hill.TV.

“That’s because a substantial number of women say they are not supporting either. That’s much higher than men. It suggests that Biden has not closed the deal with women. It would be interesting what a female VP pick might accomplish for him,” he added.

The former Vice President has pledged to pick a woman as his running mate.

Biden on Tuesday held a virtual town hall where 2016 Democratic nominee and former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, endorsed former vice president.

“Women voters, particularly suburban women, are going to be a key voting bloc in November,” Mallory Newall, Research Director at Ipsos, told Hill.TV.

“President Trump’s approval rating has been underwater among women for his entire presidency, and we saw suburban women turn away from Republicans in the 2018 midterms. When I look at these numbers, I see that a plurality – but not a majority – plan to support Biden at this point in time. Both candidates will undoubtedly be working to shore up support among women between now and the election,” she added.

The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 958 registered voters between April 19 and 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.17 percentage points. 

—Gabriela Schulte

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