The Hill's 12:30 Report

The Hill's 12:30 Report

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The Hill's 12:30 Report – New Hampshire primary: It's election day! | 7 things to watch in NH | Obama's $4.1T budget | Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonJuan Williams: Don't count Biden out Consensus forming for ambitious climate goal: Net zero pollution Democrats' choice: Unite or go down to defeat MORE jokes about not being married

NEW THIS MORNING – OBAMA'S GOT A BUDGET: President Obama has sent his eighth and last budget proposal to Congress. The $4.1 trillion outline includes initiatives to combat cancer, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and global warming. Way to steal New Hampshire's thunder. But, actually, the White House hopes it will fire up Democrats as election season heats up. More on the details from The Hill's Sarah Ferris and Jordan Fabian

Here's the full text ...if you're into that kind of thing:

Tweet from Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Paul Ryan says Biden likely won't get Democratic nomination Judd Gregg: Honey, I Shrunk The Party MORE (R-Wis.): President Obama will leave office having never proposed a budget that balances--ever.

FIRST-IN-THE-NATION PRIMARY – 7 THINGS TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT: Here's what The Hill is eyeing tonight: 

• Is Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpCensus Bureau spends millions on ad campaign to mitigate fears on excluded citizenship question Bloomberg campaign: Primary is two-way race with Sanders Democratic senator meets with Iranian foreign minister MORE for real? 
• Can Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioPeace Corps' sudden decision to leave China stirs blowback Lawmakers raise concerns over Russia's growing influence in Venezuela USDA takes heat as Democrats seek probe into trade aid MORE recapture his mojo? 
• Will their focus on New Hampshire pay dividends for the governors? 
• Where do independents go? 
• How will Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonOmar endorses progressive Georgia Democrat running for House seat Bernie Sanders's Super Tuesday problem Democrats worried about Trump's growing strength MORE fare? 
• Can Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTed Cruz takes aim at Alabama vasectomy bill: 'Yikes' 'Medicare for All' will turn into health care for none Cruz 'impresses' his daughter with Chris Evans meeting MORE win without evangelicals? 
• Who might throw in the towel? 

Ben Kamisar has the context for each question.

It's Tuesday and HAPPY NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY DAY!! Please excuse my hyperventilation -- this is my nerdy version of the Super Bowl or Olympics. ;) Filing from JD's Tavern on the set of MSNBC's "Morning Joe" in Manchester, N.H., I'm Cate Martel. From my perch, actor Ted Danson, Sen. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenOvernight Health Care: Appeals court strikes down Medicaid work requirements | Pelosi's staff huddles with aides on surprise billing | Senate Dems pressure Trump to drop ObamaCare lawsuit Senate Democrats pressure Trump to drop ObamaCare lawsuit Trump under pressure to renew last nuke treaty with Russia MORE (D-N.H.), former Gov. John Sununu and son former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) have walked by. Here's a brief update of what you missed during the morning, what's on tap for the rest of the day and some tidbits from the campaign trail. Send comments, story ideas and bets if you think there'll be an upset tonight to and on Facebook.



GOP TODAY – 'FIRST IS THE WORST, SECOND IS THE BEST ...?': Via The Hill's Jonathan Easley, who isalso on the ground in New Hampshire, the polls have opened today with Donald Trump as the prohibitive favorite on the Republican side. But the real race to watch tonight is the battle between Marco Rubio, whose momentum from the Iowa caucuses has catapulted his presidential campaign, and three current and former governors, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, all fighting for survival. But Rubio's rough debate performance Saturday has changed things. Here's where that race could lead:

AND NOW FOR THE DEMS IN THE ROOM: Via The Hill's Niall Stanage and Amie Parnes, Hillary Clinton's campaign has gone negative against Bernie SandersBernie SandersBloomberg campaign: Primary is two-way race with Sanders Warren: Bloomberg making debate will show how other candidates handle 'an egomaniac billionaire' HuffPost reporter: Sanders could win plurality of delegates but lose nomination MORE and it's making Democrats nervous. Now, there are rumblings of a staff shake-up. Here's where that race stands now:

A TALKING POINT TO DOWNPLAY: Some people attribute Bernie Sanders's success in New Hampshire to him being from neighboring Vermont. However, more than 50 percent of the Granite State's population is in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, which are extensions of the Boston media market, not Vermont's. 

-- There aren't many major highways that connect the two states.  Even the fastest way from New Hampshire to upstate New York on the other side of Vermont is to dip down to Massachusetts rather than driving straight through Vermont. The "Bernie backyard" comparison may apply to areas like Keene and Hanover, N.H., which sit on the border of Vermont, but there's a divide between the two seemingly similar states. 

-- The University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala said attributing Mitt Romney's success in the state to him being a former governor of Massachusetts is much more accurate than the Sanders comparison -- though it doesn't hurt. "Bernie Sanders's backyard is a lot smaller than Mitt Romney's was or Mike Dukakis or Paul Tsongas's," Scala told The 12:30 Report. "And that's just a fact." 

INSIDER HASHTAGS TO KNOW: The two biggest hashtags for the New Hampshire primary are #nhpolitics and #fitn. The first is self-explanatory, but "FITN" stands for "first in the nation," describing the primary.

WHEN YOUR WIFE IS CRAMPING YOUR EX-PRESIDENT STYLE: While campaigning in New Hampshire, former President Bill Clinton said about Hillary Clinton: Sometimes ... "I wish we weren't married. Then I could say what I really think." Lol, go on,Bill. Pretty please.

THE FUN SIDE OF CAMPAIGNING: Marco Rubio's team released a video from the perspective of the candidate's kids on the campaign bus in New Hampshire. It's cute. Watch: Side note: Rubio includes anecdotes of his kids during almost every event. In Hudson, N.H., this weekend, for example, Rubio described a protester outside dressed as Spider-Man. But his son didn't understand it wasn't actual Spider-Man, was thrilled and remained on the bus during the event to watch the "super hero."

THE NIGHT BEFORE THE ACTION: Last night, CNN Politics hosted a "News & Brews" event for reporters to sample local beers at Foundry, a new restaurant started by the founder of the Segway, Dean Kamen of Bedford, N.H. Spotted: Jeb Bush backer Ana Navarro, FP1 Strategies' Ryan Williams, political consultant Drew Cline, CNN's Manu Raju, Brooke Baldwin, MJ Lee, Sara Murray, Cassie Spodak, The New York Times's Alex Burns, BuzzFeed's Tarini Parti, Politico's Glenn Thrush, Katie Glueck, Hadas Gold, Shane Goldmacher, The Boston Globe's James Pindell, The Union Leader's Dan Tuohy and Bloomberg's Kevin Cirilli.



POVERTY ALLIANCE IN THE WORKS: Via The Hill's Mike Lillis, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and the Congressional Black Caucus may join forces to shift more federal money to parts of the country with persistent poverty.

SAY WHAT?: Donald Trump's son Eric Trump says waterboarding is "no different" than "what happens in frat houses every day." I'm just going to leave it at that ...

TRUMP DEFENDS CALLING CRUZ A 'PUSSY' – OH, GOOD ...: Via The Hill's Mark Hensch, Donald Trump said, "We were all just having fun," downplaying the incident. "I was just repeating what [a supporter] said so everyone could hear.



BuzzFeed's Andrew Kaczynski
Jim Gilmore, Staying At Airport Super 8 Motel, Says He Has "Gilmentum"

The Blaze's Leigh Munsil
Looks like Jeb! is winning the NH WiFi primary

National Review’s Alexis Levinson (photo of Chris Christie with a voter today)
"I haven't voted yet" "What've I gotta do?"

Politico's Ben Weyl (_Ruuuuuude)
Forget New Hampshire. It's BUDGET DAY.

Time's Ryan Teague Beckwith: Nothing explains the divide between politics and policy reporters in D.C. better than this tweet. 



1 p.m. EST: Obama administration officials discuss the president's proposed 2017 budget. They includeShaun DonovanShaun L. S. DonovanHouse Dems call on OMB to analyze Senate budget plan Overnight Finance: Dems turn up heat on Wells Fargo | New rules for prepaid cards | Justices dig into insider trading law GOP reps warn Obama against quickly finalizing tax rules MORE, Office of Management and Budget director; Jason FurmanJason FurmanTrillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, and hardly a voice of caution to be heard Billionaires paid lower tax rate than working class for first time in US history: study Economy adds 130K jobs in August, falling below expectations MORE, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers; Cecilia Muñoz, director of the Domestic Policy Council; Jeff Zients, director of the National Economic Council; and Josh Earnest, White House press secretary. 

2:15 p.m. EST: The Senate votes to confirm Scot Alan Marciel as ambassador to Burma

6:30 p.m. EST: The House votes on a dozen bills largely on veterans' issues.

7 p.m. EST: Donald Trump is holding a primary night watch party at the Executive Court Banquet Facility in Manchester, N.H. 

7 p.m. EST: Polls close in much of New Hampshire.

7:30 p.m. EST: Hillary Clinton is holding a primary night rally at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST: Bernie Sanders is holding a primary night rally at Concord High School in Concord, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST: Chris Christie holds a primary night rally at the Radisson Hotel in Nashua, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST: Marco Rubio is holding a primary night rally at the Radisson Hotel (i.e. the media hub) in Manchester, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST:  John Kasich is holding a rally at the Grappone Conference Center in Concord, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST: Carly Fiorina is holding a rally at Derryfield in Manchester, N.H.

7:30 p.m. EST: Ted Cruz is holding a rally at Alpine Grove in Hollis, N.H., where your author's awkward high school dances were. Lol. But I digress ... 

7:30 p.m. EST: Ben Carson holds a primary night rally at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua, N.H., where GOP presidential candidates first kicked off the race at a leadership summit in April. Oh how far we've come. 

7:30 p.m. EST: Jeb Bush holds a primary night rally at Manchester Community College in Manchester, N.H.

8 p.m. EST: Polls close for all of New Hampshire.



Today is National Bagels and Lox Day!

IT WAS ALL FUN AND GAMES TILL YOU HAD TO RUIN IT: A South Florida man tossed a three-and-a-half foot alligator out the window at a fast-food restaurant's drive-through. I have so many questions...

BECAUSE I'M STAKED OUT WORKING IN A BAR ... SO NACHOS ARE CLEARLY TOP-OF-MIND: DCist has a list of the best nachos in the Washington area.  And for verification purposes, I can personally confirm this list is correct about "El Rey."

And because I'm sleep-deprived (hence "easily entertained"), here are some pandas roughhousing.

Also, if you want my on-the-ground and behind-the-scenes updates as the precinct results roll in, follow along on my Twitter. I'm apologizing ahead of time for the nerdy "Granite State" enthusiasm and the deliriousness to ensue. 



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