The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Presented by the Counter Extremism Project — One day to midterms | Obama, Trump face off | High turnout raises Dem hopes

 The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Presented by the Counter Extremism Project — One day to midterms | Obama, Trump face off | High turnout raises Dem hopes

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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.


The Hill's 12:30 Report: One day to midterms | Trump, Obama face off | High turnout raises Dem hopes | 10 Senate seats most likely to flip | Cook report shifts 9 House races to Dems | What to know for Election Day | New Iran sanctions kick in | Trump grants sanctions waivers | El Chapo's trial begins | 2nd National Doughnut Day of 2018 


Black Friday deals for three Iranian nuclear facilities:

Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoPompeo reaffirms to Saudi crown prince US will hold Khashoggi’s killers ‘accountable’ Trump, Erdogan discussed Khashoggi Trump honors French and American soldiers of World War I in Armistice Day remarks MORE announced Monday that the Trump administration is granting sanctions waivers to three Iranian nuclear facilities. Why this is newsy: As of today, the U.S. has re-imposed sanctions against Iran. http://bit.ly/2Orn9IP

From Pompeo: "We have decided to grant narrow and temporary waivers that permit continuation of three nonproliferation projects currently underway. Allowing these activities to continue for the time being will improve ongoing oversight of Iran's civil nuclear program and make these facilities less susceptible to illicit and illegal nuclear uses. Rest assured, Iran will never come close to getting a nuclear weapon."


It's Monday -- tomorrow is Election Day! To freak you out a little, Christmas is 50 days from today. And to freak you out even more, Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama shares Veterans Day message: 'There's no tribute that can truly match the magnitude of your service' Beto 2020 calls multiply among Dems Here we are: a nation divided by statues MORE was elected president 10 years ago today. 

I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com, @CateMartel and on Facebook.

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn






The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip:

Via The Hill's Jordain Carney, Republicans are growing more confident they will increase their Senate majority after the midterm elections tomorrow. http://bit.ly/2zvfi7F

Which races could flip: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Florida, West Virginia, Tennessee and Texas

Which Senate seats Republicans think they will pick up: North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana

Which Senate seats are still up for grabs: Montana and Florida

Reasons for each: http://bit.ly/2zvfi7F



This morning -- to the left, to the left: The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved nine House races toward Democrats. Details: http://bit.ly/2DmT3VT

From CBS News's election tracker: https://cbsn.ws/2RwdToK

The tracker's most likely scenario: Democrats win 225 House seats; Republicans win 210

Other (less) likely scenarios: Republicans win 220 House seats; Dems win 215 ... or Democrats win 232 House seats; Republicans win 203 

From Politico's Steven Shepard -- what would need to happen for Republicans to keep the House: "Republicans would have to sweep virtually all of the 22 races currently rated as toss-ups to hold onto their House majority -- a nearly insurmountable challenge." Analysis: https://politi.co/2F5UuJW

From election forecaster Nate Silver -- why Dems and Republicans have an equal chance of winning the House: FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said the chances of Democrats taking the House are just as likely as Republicans keeping the House. Why: "The range of outcomes in the House is really wide." http://bit.ly/2D3iN8J



Getting to the polls: Ridesharing apps, including Uber and Lyft, are offering free or discounted rides to voters heading to the poll. Details of each offer: http://bit.ly/2PDpWUa

When and where to vote: "Most polling places open anywhere from 6 to 8 a.m. and close from 6 to 9 p.m. local time. These schedules vary by state but can also differ by county or city." Find your specific polling place: http://bit.ly/2zvpflF

Here's a list of D.C. election watch parties and bar specials: http://bit.ly/2OtkGxw

How many early ballots have been cast?: More than 34 million people have already voted. That is a 50 percent increase from 2014. http://bit.ly/2zvpDAJ

Whoooops: A polling location in Miami briefly ran out of ballots yesterday. https://hrld.us/2qtq5v1

How President TrumpDonald John TrumpMichael Cohen: I pray Michelle Obama's words will unite country again Michelle Obama: ‘I stopped even trying to smile’ during Trump’s inauguration Trump wants to end federal relief money for Puerto Rico: report MORE and former President Obama are in a full-blown proxy war: Via The Hill's Niall Stanagehttp://bit.ly/2PEVp8f

Oh hey, John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerMcMorris Rodgers won't run for GOP leadership Newly empowered House Dems eyeing Trump need to learn from Gingrich debacle Media’s blame-Trump narrative ignores midterm realities MORE: Former House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) called for the legalization of marijuana in a new Wall Street Journal op-ed https://on.wsj.com/2PJH6iM

Remember: BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerMcMorris Rodgers won't run for GOP leadership Newly empowered House Dems eyeing Trump need to learn from Gingrich debacle Media’s blame-Trump narrative ignores midterm realities MORE joined the board of a cannabis company earlier this year. http://bit.ly/2P8Wfe2

Whether young voters will turn out: http://bit.ly/2PIYZym



I'm expecting this trial to trial to turn into a dramatic season of 'Prison Break':

The trial of Mexican drug lord Joaquín Guzmán, or 'El Chapo,' starts today in New York City What to expect: http://bit.ly/2JEzadn

Yes, this makes sense: Because of El Chapo's notoriety, "Heavily armed federal agents will turn the courthouse into a fortress." https://abc13.co/2ySrRub

Keep in mind: El Chapo has escaped from jail twice, once in 2001 and again 2015. How: He escaped through a tunnel. Photos and videos of his 2015 escape -- wooow: https://nyti.ms/2Dnbjyf 

It must be pretty intimidating to be a juror: "Jurors will be kept anonymous and escorted to and from the courthouse by federal officers." https://abc13.co/2ySrRub

Tidbit outside the courthouse: From Vice's Keegan Hamilton: "This guy pacing around outside the courthouse yelling 'free El Chapo.' I ask, 'Why should he be free?' He responds, 'He's not charged with killing anyone is he?' 'Well, he's accused of 33 murders.' 'Oh s---, really?' " http://bit.ly/2yTelq9






Last night -- 'It's a no from us':

Via The New York Times's Daniel Victor, "In the middle of a highly anticipated 'Sunday Night Football' broadcast, NBC aired an immigration-themed advertisement, approved by President Trump, that CNN publicly declared to be too racist to accept as a paid ad." https://nyti.ms/2PInL1t

Watch the ad -- President Trump shared it on Twitter: http://bit.ly/2JGHXeL



I'll tell YOU what I want, what I really, really want:

Watch their announcement videohttp://bit.ly/2PbEfjm





The House and Senate are out. President Trump is campaigning in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri. Vice President Pence is campaigning in Montana and South Dakota. 

12:40 p.m. EST: President Trump leaves the White House for Cleveland. 

6:20 p.m. EST: Vice President Pence campaigns in Rapid City, S.D. 

10:10 p.m. EST: Vice President Pence and second lady Karen PenceKaren Sue PenceThe Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by the Counter Extremism Project — Election Day edition | Sights, sounds at the polls | Guide to election night | What to watch for | Dems optimistic about House, GOP about Senate | Vote to offer verdict on Trump The Hill's Morning Report — Judgment Day: New data suggest big Dem gains in House, governors’ races The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Presented by the Counter Extremism Project — One day to midterms | Obama, Trump face off | High turnout raises Dem hopes MORE get back to Washington, D.C.

1:40 am. EST Tuesday: President Trump gets back to the White House.



11:45 a.m. EDT: Former President Obama campaigns in Fairfax, Va., for Democrats. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2yRjVcQ

2:05 p.m. EST: Vice President Pence campaigns in Kalispell, Mont. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2F3HDYF

2:45 p.m. EST: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Cleveland. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2RAJwO1

6:05 p.m. EST: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Fort Wayne, Ind. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2PcMsn6

10 p.m. EST: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Cape Girardeau, Mo. Oh and: Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity will appear with the president. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2RBGvwL



Today is National Doughnut Day. Keep in mind: There are two days devoted to doughnuts each year: http://bit.ly/2RAY8ge


I do love stickers:

Here's the back story to the "I voted" stickers: http://bit.ly/2SK758u


And because you made it to the end, here's an incredibly clever Halloween costume: http://bit.ly/2PNO6eN