The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by MAPRx — All eyes on Trump as 2020 bid begins

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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

 

The Hill's 12:30 Report -- Presented by MAPRx -- Trump to launch reelection bid in Orlando | What to watch | Supporters camp out ahead of rally | Baby Trump balloon to greet president | Polls show Trump cutting into Biden lead in key states | Trump threatens to deport millions starting next week | Ocasio-Cortez stokes controversy by comparing detention centers to 'concentration camps' | GOP worries about Trump relaunching fight over ObamaCare

 

HAPPENING TONIGHT

He HAS to top riding down the escalator in 2015

Elephants! Hot air balloon! Riding in on a wrecking ball maybe?:

President TrumpDonald John TrumpSupreme Court comes to Trump's aid on immigration Trump is failing on trade policy Trump holds call with Netanyahu to discuss possible US-Israel defense treaty MORE is officially kicking off his 2020 reelection campaign tonight at a "Make America Great Again" rally in Orlando, Fla.

This is so well said -- via The New York Times's Peter Baker: "The coming election is shaping up as a test -- not just of the man but of his country. Was Mr. Trump's victory the last time around a historical fluke or a genuine reflection of America in the modern age? Will the populist surge that lifted him to the White House run its course or will it further transform a nation and its capital in ways that will outlast his presidency? What kind of country do Americans really want at this point?" Full article -- it's a good read: https://nyti.ms/2KnTMK7

Livestream of Trump's 8 p.m. EDT rally: https://cs.pn/31F1LYE

Throwback to the 2015 escalator ride: Here are descriptions from people who attended: https://politi.co/2KmxKat

 

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH AT TRUMP'S RALLY: 

  1. How hard does Trump hit Joe BidenJoe BidenEric Holder: Democrats 'have to understand' that 'borders mean something' Young insurgents aren't rushing to Kennedy's side in Markey fight Biden says he'll release medical records before primaries MORE?
  2. Does he mention health care?
  3. Does he use Robert MuellerRobert (Bob) Swan MuellerFox's Cavuto roasts Trump over criticism of network Mueller report fades from political conversation Trump calls for probe of Obama book deal MORE as a foil?
  4. Does he talk about his second-term agenda or offer his "greatest hits"?
  5. Does he stay on message or step on his message?

Reasoning for each from The Hill's Niall Stanage: http://bit.ly/2Xj1xHb

 

It's Tuesday. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com -- and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn  

 

 

THIS MORNING, RIGHT BEFORE TRUMP'S VISIT: 

The Orlando Sentinel published an editorial announcing its presidential endorsement: "Not Donald Trump." Read the op-ed: http://bit.ly/2KS9fBw

Why it's noteworthy: "Sentinel has a long history of endorsing Republicans for president including Romney over Obama in 2012." (Tweet from CNN's Jake TapperJacob (Jake) Paul TapperCNN, NY Times to host next Democratic debate in October Saagar Enjeti rips Harris over response to questioner's mental disability remark Pompeo says canceled Taliban meeting was attempt at peace, Democrats attack 'bizarre' plan MOREhttp://bit.ly/2KY8oiQ

  

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS IN ORLANDO:

Because of course it is: The Baby Trump balloon will be in Orlando, Fla., today: http://bit.ly/2x0rpsz

People have been waiting for 40+ hours (!): Supporters started lining up at 2:30 a.m. Monday morning. http://bit.ly/2IUpADg

Video of people camping out: This looks like a fun tailgate party: http://bit.ly/2XUPNHR

  

NEW POLL -- TRUMP IS EDGING HIS WAY IN:

According to a new Firehouse-Optimus survey, President Trump has cut into former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in Wisconsin -- and the two are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The numbers: http://bit.ly/2XYwvBA

  

IN THE WHITE HOUSE

Announced this morning -- talk to me, China:
President Trump said he will have an "extended meeting" with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to discuss trade. http://bit.ly/2WNpCqa

Where the meeting will be held: At the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan

Trump tweeted: "Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting." http://bit.ly/2WObcWJ

 

Trump threatens 'millions' of deportations: 

Last night, President Trump tweeted that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will begin to deport "millions" of undocumented immigrants. http://bit.ly/2WThZi3

When: Starting next week. 

Trump also added: "Mexico, using their strong immigration laws, is doing a very good job of stopping people long before they get to our Southern Border. Guatemala is getting ready to sign a Safe-Third Agreement. The only ones who won't do anything are the Democrats in Congress. They must vote to get rid of the loopholes, and fix asylum! If so, Border Crisis will end quickly!" http://bit.ly/2RjwW6U

  

REACTION FROM AOC -- SHE COMPARED IT TO NAZI GERMANY:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezSuper PAC head spars with CNN's Cuomo over Ocasio-Cortez ad Young insurgents aren't rushing to Kennedy's side in Markey fight Ocasio-Cortez endorses Markey in Senate race amid speculation over Kennedy candidacy MORE (D-N.Y.) called President Trump a fascist and argued that the detention centers holding undocumented immigrants are "exactly" like concentration camps in Nazi Germany. http://bit.ly/2RiNmwc

Her full quote: "The U.S. is running concentration camps on our southern border, and that is exactly what they are. If that doesn't bother you ... I want to talk to the people that are concerned enough with humanity to say that 'never again' means something." http://bit.ly/2RiNmwc

Where she made these comments: In an Instagram Live video. http://bit.ly/2HscBca

^ Let's just say not everyone agreed with AOC: Rep. Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyOvernight Defense: Afghanistan tops foreign policy issues at Dem debate | Erdogan says he'll discuss missile sale with Trump | US again challenges Beijing's claim to South China Sea Paul calls into Wyoming TV station to talk Cheney feud Liz Cheney and Rand Paul extend war of words MORE (R-Wyo.) blasted Ocasio-Cortez for her concentration camp remarks. Cheney tweeted: "Please @AOC do us all a favor and spend just a few minutes learning some actual history. 6 million Jews were exterminated in the Holocaust. You demean their memory and disgrace yourself with comments like this." http://bit.ly/2XgIZYd

^ AOC responded to the criticism: "And for the shrieking Republicans who don't know the difference: concentration camps are not the same as death camps. Concentration camps are considered by experts as 'the mass detention of civilians without trial.' And that's exactly what this administration is doing." http://bit.ly/2MT8E56

And specifically to Liz Cheney: "Hey Rep. Cheney, since you're so eager to "educate me," I'm curious: What do YOU call building mass camps of people being detained without a trial? How would you dress up DHS's mass separation of thousands children at the border from their parents?" http://bit.ly/2MWU1Od

  

IN CONGRESS

Republicans would like it to ~stay~ on the back burner:

Via The Hill's Alexander Bolton, "President Trump has put the issue of health care back on the political front burner, providing ammunition to Democrats and worrying Republicans who think a new battle over ObamaCare will hurt their party in next year's elections." http://bit.ly/2MVDIkD

Why Republicans are nervous: "Senate Republicans, defending 22 seats next year, thought they had put ObamaCare repeal behind them when they told Trump earlier this year that they have no intention of acting on a health care overhaul before the election." 

And they don't know what to expect: "Republican lawmakers have little idea of what to expect and say there hasn't been communication from the administration on the issue." 

  

NOTABLE TWEETS

This kid is going places: 

 

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ON TAP

The House and Senate are in. President Trump is in Washington, D.C., and Vice President Pence is in Miami. Trump and Pence are meeting in Orlando, Fla., later today.

11:30 a.m. EDT: President Trump received an intelligence briefing.

12:05 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence and Karen PenceKaren Sue PenceThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump issues Taliban warning at Sept. 11 memorial The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump doubles down on Dorian's threat to Alabama The Hill's Morning Report — The wall problem confronting Dems and the latest on Dorian MORE tour the USNS Comfort in Miami.

12:30 p.m. EDT: The Senate breaks for weekly caucus luncheons. The Senate's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/31w22Ng

3:20 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence and Karen Pence land in Orlando, Fla.

3:50 p.m. EDT: President Trump and first lady Melania TrumpMelania TrumpMelania Trump to attend reopening of Washington Monument Former speechwriter says Michelle Obama came up with 'when they go low we go high' line White House dismisses 'ridiculous' criticism of Melania Trump's coat on 9/11 MORE leave Washington, D.C., for Orlando, Fla.

6:30 p.m. EDT: The House votes. The House's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/2MUJ8N2 

7:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump speaks at a private Trump Victory reception in Orlando.

10 a.m. EDT Wednesday: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam SchiffAdam Bennett SchiffHouse chairman subpoenas acting Trump intel chief over whistleblower complaint The Hill's Morning Report - Can Trump save GOP in North Carolina special election? Giuliani tears into Democrats after House opens probe into whether he pressured Ukraine to target Biden MORE (D-Calif.) speaks at the National Press Club. Details: http://bit.ly/31H5kgU

Late June: Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding high-dollar fundraisers in California. http://bit.ly/31FpzeL

June 26: The Hill is hosting "The Future of Healthcare Summit." Featured speakers: Sen. Bill CassidyWilliam (Bill) Morgan CassidyRepublicans grumble over Trump shifting military funds to wall Push on 'surprise' medical bills hits new roadblocks Iowa professor resigns after saying he's affiliated with antifa MORE (R-La.), the Food and Drug Administration's Dr. Amy Abernethy, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel and Nano Vision CEO Steve Papermaster. Details and how to RSVP: http://bit.ly/2Xc4Ksb

 

WHAT TO WATCH

12:40 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a press conference in Miami with Adm. Craig Faller, commander of the U.S. Southern Command. Livestream: http://bit.ly/2KYGZgH

2:30 p.m. EDT: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on Russia and Ukraine. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2KXT8Cv

6:30 p.m. EDT: Beto O'RourkeBeto O'RourkeO'Rourke: Texans have told me they're fine giving up their AR-15s Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers ramp up Silicon Valley antitrust probe | Treasury sanctions North Korean cyber groups | Thiel to host Kobach fundraiser Tomi Lahren apologizes for 'way remarks came out' on border, Second Amendment MORE appears on NBC's "My Big Idea." 

8 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally to officially launch his reelection bid. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31F1LYE

 

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...

Today is International Picnic Day.

  

This is a sad, but interesting list:

Via Eater Washington, D.C., here's a list of D.C.-area restaurants that have closed in 2019: http://bit.ly/2ZtflfC

 

Looking to buy?:

Via The Washington Post, "Condo where Bob Woodward left messages for Deep Throat during Watergate lists for $349,000." Details: https://wapo.st/2ZxusEG

 

And to break up your Tuesday afternoon, here's a dog auditioning to be a statue: http://bit.ly/2L4isa7